tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post2521576758343285149..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: PDO, ENSO, and Temperature ExtremesRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-51622183766971283462016-01-24T17:47:38.726-09:002016-01-24T17:47:38.726-09:00Eric, it may appear that way, but the thresholds a...Eric, it may appear that way, but the thresholds are taken from the percentiles of the observed distribution, so the two extremes are symmetric in terms of frequency; they are equally likely overall. If we defined the thresholds in terms of standard deviations from the mean, then we would certainly have to deal with skewness.<br /><br />Thanks for reading! I find that the research is an endlessly fascinating quest for understanding.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-71590890504881941312016-01-23T23:10:43.716-09:002016-01-23T23:10:43.716-09:00What I'm getting out of this is that on the wh...What I'm getting out of this is that on the whole, taking all of Alaska, we are more likely over time to see warm extremes than cold extremes - regardless of the PDO or El Nino. That the distribution of temperature favors the warm part of the spectrum. This just seems odd to me.<br /><br />This analysis also makes me wonder if we can use 30℉ as a threshold instead of the extremes. Then based on the sign and strength of the PDO and El Nino, we could get an idea of whether there will be snow on the ground or not. Snow is kind-of important for Fur Rondy, Iditarod, Yukon Quest, and the Iron Dog.<br /><br />Thanks for continuing to look into this research. It's interesting to see the big picture of the climate that I live in.Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.com