tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post3709791161257440299..comments2024-03-27T04:17:21.221-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Southeast Thunderstorm EnvironmentRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-3856885055316848062014-07-16T17:47:01.580-08:002014-07-16T17:47:01.580-08:00Mike,
It certainly appears that way based on the ...Mike,<br /><br />It certainly appears that way based on the limited data set here - 2000, 2004, and 2008 were all dry in Fairbanks in June and July. But more years would be required to say for sure.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-58068538357087594732014-07-16T17:44:30.310-08:002014-07-16T17:44:30.310-08:00Jim,
Thanks very much indeed for explaining the m...Jim,<br /><br />Thanks very much indeed for explaining the mystery regarding Haines thunder! I've seen that TSNO before, but I somehow failed to connect the dots.<br /><br />Based on the reanalysis data, the June 24 event last year coincided with the extremely warm low-level air passing right over the area. The instability must have been extreme and sustained to allow for persistent strong storms as you describe. Amazing!<br /><br />I think your hypothesis about easier destabilization of the marine layer makes very good sense. It would certainly be fun to run some high-resolution modeling of the area and see the instability pick up when nearby ocean temps are above-normal. One could also calculate a simple measure of instability using surface obs and reanalysis upper-air conditions. A project for another time...<br /><br />Thanks again.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-68680765042940088162014-07-16T11:14:38.327-08:002014-07-16T11:14:38.327-08:00Unfortunately many ASOS units, including Haines, d...Unfortunately many ASOS units, including Haines, do not detect or report thunder (that's what the TSNO at the end of the METEAR remarks means.<br /><br />METAR PAHN 161254Z AUTO 12005KT 10SM OVC060 12/09 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP233 T01170094 TSNO=<br /><br />I can assure you that Haines gets as many and probably more summer thunderstorms than Juneau. Probably at least one day most summers. Last summer was an overachiever. Not just in the number of days, but in the intensity of the June 24th storms. A cluster of cells moved over the coastal range from northern BC and walloped Haines.and Skagway (also TSNO).The lightning and thunder were incredible and went on for about 6 hours with little intermission. There were plenty of cloud-ground strikes and people reported burning trees on the hillsides (luckily put out by the rain.) Life-long residents could not remember anything like it.<br /><br />Thunderstorms also sometimes come down the broad Chilkat Valley (roughly from the west). They don't tend to form in the town area, but usually depend on the better conditions farther inland. One way to look at it might be that coastal areas can become an extension of the interior when conditions allow. For instance strong daytime heating lowers the air density, making what was a stable marine layer impediment an open door to share in the deeper instability of the interior. It is plausible that this can happen easier when the NE Pacific is warmer. Just a theory...what do you all think?Jim Greenhttp://williwaw.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-3071108202287452272014-07-13T15:32:42.746-08:002014-07-13T15:32:42.746-08:00Thank you Richard. I wonder if summer thunderstorm...Thank you Richard. I wonder if summer thunderstorm activity in southeast correlates to dry above normal weather in the mainland say Interior Alaska. I'd guess so, as the branch of the North Pacific ridge is more active when there is warmer water in the eastern gulf.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14314188127716465153noreply@blogger.com