tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post5197211481358807901..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Bias-Corrected Sea Ice ForecastRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-14462128889620878242016-08-28T23:25:37.676-08:002016-08-28T23:25:37.676-08:00I appreciate your post, i like your content which ...I appreciate your post, i like your content which is very informative...<br /><br />Get the <a href="http://www.uthestory.com" rel="nofollow">latest news from UTheStory</a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10057390834414196141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-45375944274577541842014-06-19T09:36:36.080-08:002014-06-19T09:36:36.080-08:00Here's a news report regarding recent snow in ...Here's a news report regarding recent snow in the Alaska Range, per Richard's comments above about the freezing level during warm-season rain events:<br /><br />http://www.newsminer.com/news/local_news/heavy-rain-falls-in-fairbanks-snow-falls-in-alaska-range/article_a05229f0-f784-11e3-8153-0017a43b2370.html<br /><br />Gary<br /><br />NL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-66715694763428869902014-06-17T16:47:29.130-08:002014-06-17T16:47:29.130-08:00Now's a chance...big rain forecast for the Int...Now's a chance...big rain forecast for the Interior: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=ak&prodtype=discussion#AFDAFG<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-42402683648057925092014-06-17T13:42:12.512-08:002014-06-17T13:42:12.512-08:00Mike, the best way to get at this for the interior...Mike, the best way to get at this for the interior might be to look at the freezing level during warm-season rain events. I'll put it on the to-do list.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-88820132964649894862014-06-17T08:08:12.365-08:002014-06-17T08:08:12.365-08:00Mike, as an Anchorage resident, I can chime in on ...Mike, as an Anchorage resident, I can chime in on the Chugach Mountain snow. The snow on Wolverine peak actually fell a few days earlier. Areas above 3,700' received up to 6" of snow. On May 31st, up to 2' of snow fell above 2,500'. My experience has been that every few years there is a dusting of snow above 4,000' in early to mid June around Anchorage. Two years ago it happened on the day before the solstice. I have not seen any snow in July or August in those same locations.Climatologist49https://www.blogger.com/profile/04560505931210357679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-6664248126948095752014-06-16T22:27:45.237-08:002014-06-16T22:27:45.237-08:00A different ice/snow related question here:
First...A different ice/snow related question here: <br />First some background: I live in Fairbanks but work in a remote mountain region in the northern southeast panhandle of Alaska. Saturday the mountains got fresh snow down to around 3500 feet overnight. Interesting for June but not unprecedented. I believe that the local ice fields in the area have a modifying effect on the local air masses especially in early summer. Tonight I am in Anchorage headed back to Fairbanks and I see fresh snow on the peaks around the area from the current little low that is tracking across the gulf. How normal is it for snow in June in the mountains around Anchorage? I used to climb these mountains when I was a teen 25 years ago and I'd say the snow level is down around 4000 feet. (The top of wolverine peak is frosted) <br />What about snow in the white mountains say down to 4000 feet in June? (Although 4000 feet is a stretch for the hills of the interior as most are 2000 feet or less)<br />Any takers?<br />MikeMikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14314188127716465153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-43115195337650121432014-06-13T19:29:11.053-08:002014-06-13T19:29:11.053-08:00Great analysis Richard. I guess I thought the CFS ...Great analysis Richard. I guess I thought the CFS output was bias correct from the hindcast climatology. Maybe not all fields. Hummm.... Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-91722893776779867602014-06-13T09:13:00.718-08:002014-06-13T09:13:00.718-08:00Thanks for following up on this Richard. The CPC h...Thanks for following up on this Richard. The CPC has discussions that accompany their seasonal land-based forecasts but I don't see any similar product for the sea ice forecasts. Interestingly, the CPC's summer temperature forecast for all of Alaska is for above normal temperatures.<br /><br />In the long-lead prognostic discussion, the CPC states:<br /><br />THE CFSV2 PREDICTS NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TO AROUND +1.0 C BY LATE SUMMER. MOST STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT SSTS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE +0.5 DEGREE C ANOMALY THRESHOLD ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS.<br /><br />I wonder if there is a correlation between ENSO onset and sea ice conditions.<br />Climatologist49https://www.blogger.com/profile/04560505931210357679noreply@blogger.com