tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post6196833263613907463..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Temperature Deviations From NormalRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-4587843070793236772013-10-21T08:25:06.445-08:002013-10-21T08:25:06.445-08:00Yes, very interesting indeed. Certainly worth a cl...Yes, very interesting indeed. Certainly worth a closer examination. I updated the post to include the daily SDs for Anchorage. A similar story. Since the Arguez method was successfully replicated for the 1981-2010 time period, I feel good about the values for prior decades. With the large differences primarily occurring in Winter, we can assume that winter variation is much reduced.Climatologist49https://www.blogger.com/profile/04560505931210357679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-50021080799979744372013-10-21T05:25:21.993-08:002013-10-21T05:25:21.993-08:00Thanks, Brian - that is rather fascinating. So th...Thanks, Brian - that is rather fascinating. So the variability in the decades since 1970 has tended to be lower than in the prior periods used to calculate the reference standard deviation. There is a lot of scope for interesting research here.Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-77913048238396747772013-10-20T11:49:08.690-08:002013-10-20T11:49:08.690-08:00Interesting. The Arguez method is pretty unsatisfy...Interesting. The Arguez method is pretty unsatisfying in my opinion and not very fun to calculate. I look forward to seeing your manuscript. I added a chart of the daily standard deviation by climate period for Fairbanks. The variability is much reduced in the 1981-2010 period. This year's temperature variability is more typical of 50+ years ago.Climatologist49https://www.blogger.com/profile/04560505931210357679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-64563790430958192622013-10-20T10:45:55.092-08:002013-10-20T10:45:55.092-08:00Very interesting. Two comments: it appears the me...Very interesting. Two comments: it appears the median number of +/- 2SD days was considerably higher prior to 1970 - do you have a sense for whether this is some artifact of the calculation method, or did the shape of the distribution really change?<br /><br />Second: I believe there is a minor flaw in the Arguez method of computing daily standard deviations, leading to an overestimate of the true daily variance; this would at least partly explain the deviation from expectations that you report. I am close to completing a brief paper on this subject and will forward it to you soon for your perusal.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.com