tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post8042573132149737118..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Freezing Rain TrendsRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-77701422871603190662015-02-26T19:57:55.789-09:002015-02-26T19:57:55.789-09:00I made it through one read but will return tomorro...I made it through one read but will return tomorrow. I heard the lead author recently on NPR and had read previous documents via the Internet. The link in Alaska Dispatch was fortuitous and made my morning considering the question above I posed earlier. <br /><br />Regardless of the eventual outcome on climate, I feel it's important to become sensitized to analysis and provoking ideas similar to this analysis. Whether the author's "waviness" theory continues to result in a maintenance or even increase in extreme events of weather will be fascinating to observe and reanalyze.<br /><br />We in Alaska are quite possibly one of the canaries in the mine. <br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-22318807354012328442015-02-26T17:48:44.782-09:002015-02-26T17:48:44.782-09:00Thanks, Gary. I happened to be looking at the sam...Thanks, Gary. I happened to be looking at the same paper earlier today - no doubt we saw it linked in the same place. I want to go through it more carefully, but it's curious to note that their results show the Pacific sector with a DECREASE in "high-amplitude days" during winter in the recent period. Not what I expected to see. I think their winter results are mostly related to changes in the NAO.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-17454924430350946822015-02-26T10:26:12.047-09:002015-02-26T10:26:12.047-09:00Here's a recent paper that presents arguments ...Here's a recent paper that presents arguments for the atypical weather patterns (the Arctic Amplification Theory) recently experienced :<br /><br />http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/1/014005/article<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-20167623184985253462015-02-24T11:00:04.096-09:002015-02-24T11:00:04.096-09:00I wonder how connected our rain events have been i...I wonder how connected our rain events have been in the past with harsh weather in the mid-eastern US? <br /><br />It's easy to visualize the current northward looping of warm moist air through Alaska accompanied by SE flow of cold and snow through Canada and into the CONUS. Is that a recent or historic trend? <br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-2712128845355849862015-02-24T10:28:46.654-09:002015-02-24T10:28:46.654-09:00While there is probably more hesitancy with ice on...While there is probably more hesitancy with ice on the road (lawsuits and all) and the weather has had more ice storms, there is also a lot more people living in the hills and outskirts too. The roads are generally fine within Fairbanks proper. It's when you move out into the hills and less-kept roads is where school buses have difficulty. On top of this the hills are warmer and so can be even more slick. Some bus drivers have told me stories about how ridiculous the roads were that they had to drive on. They are extremely underappreciated.Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-66712012936825120652015-02-24T06:03:28.025-09:002015-02-24T06:03:28.025-09:00Brian, you're spot on as usual:
http://www.ne...Brian, you're spot on as usual:<br /><br />http://www.newsminer.com/news/local_news/fairbanks-schools-have-first-full-day-closure-in-more-than/article_e56b42d2-8773-53a5-ac40-1b4fd180b1b9.html<br /><br />One might speculate about changing societal attitudes to risk and inclement weather, but nevertheless your observation is significant.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-5352087574279463732015-02-24T06:00:28.056-09:002015-02-24T06:00:28.056-09:00Eric, I regard rain days as a subset of very warm ...Eric, I regard rain days as a subset of very warm days, because extreme warmth is also associated with chinook conditions, which are dry. It takes a particular setup to get extreme warmth along with moisture (i.e. ascent, not subsidence) into the interior.<br /><br />Interesting question regarding temperatures during rain. Over the whole period (1950-2014) in Fairbanks, 39% of Dec-Feb rain observations are accompanied by sub-freezing temperatures at the surface. However, this changed from 54% in 1950-1981 to 30% in 1982-2014. So plain rain has become more common at the expense of "freezing rain" (of course the plain rain also freezes on the ground). This would be interesting to examine in more detail.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-39086607208755583652015-02-23T22:30:03.979-09:002015-02-23T22:30:03.979-09:00Fairbanks schools have closed a number of times in...Fairbanks schools have closed a number of times in the last few years due to ice. I recall seeing a FDNM story about 4 or 5 years ago that stated (at the time) that it was the first school closure in decades. I might be mis-remembering that though.Climatologist49https://www.blogger.com/profile/04560505931210357679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-43822424983753684852015-02-23T19:02:51.976-09:002015-02-23T19:02:51.976-09:00We should keep in mind that if the temperatures we...We should keep in mind that if the temperatures were a few degrees cooler we would have snow. So is the number of rain days a good proxy for number of "extreme" warm days? And how many close rains are in the record (temperatures just below freezing)?Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.com