tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post8731161196441315..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Updated Temperature Anomaly Plots Rickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-47216540048083021922012-12-20T11:45:51.699-09:002012-12-20T11:45:51.699-09:00Neglected linking the 30-day forecast for JAnuary ...Neglected linking the 30-day forecast for JAnuary above:<br /><br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html<br /><br />Note the referenced negative PDO phase.<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-16798511011330986652012-12-20T11:15:46.622-09:002012-12-20T11:15:46.622-09:00Thanks for the link Rick.
Here's today's ...Thanks for the link Rick.<br /><br />Here's today's CPC seasonal forecast discussion for non-tech users (me):<br /><br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html<br /><br />And their color climate outlook maps: <br /><br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php<br /><br />Reads and looks like a cold one to me.<br /><br />Gary<br /><br /><br /> NL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-64552243855306629102012-12-20T10:57:31.508-09:002012-12-20T10:57:31.508-09:00Gary, for week to month scale forecasts try this l...Gary, for week to month scale forecasts try this link to the Climate Forecast System:<br /><br />http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/<br /><br />Lots of stuff here: for the quick look, the links at the bottom of the page "Monthly Forecast" and "Weekly Forecast" can be useful.<br /><br />RickRickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-84171315265965321582012-12-20T09:47:36.178-09:002012-12-20T09:47:36.178-09:00Thanks Rick, I'll work that link today as the ...Thanks Rick, I'll work that link today as the ice creeps up the windows. Looks like next Fri or so before we'll see a regime change.<br /><br />Russia is suffering the coldest winter since 1938. They're a long way from any tropics. This may be a unique pattern for the northern latitudes. <br /><br />The latest CPC ENSO analyses (12/17/12) indicates average temps and circulation (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf) <br /><br />Thanks again for the link.<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-26973219039067312012012-12-20T05:47:53.070-09:002012-12-20T05:47:53.070-09:00Gary,
I think the main drivers right now are the...Gary, <br /><br />I think the main drivers right now are the lack of tropical convection. As a result, cold air has tended to be bottle up at high latitudes. The models have been vaguely hinting that more convection gets going later next week. US models available at:<br /><br />http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE<br /><br />"NPAC" area is generally most useful for Alaska. If you like, give me a call at work Friday afternoon and I can walk you thru the complex set of options on this page.<br /><br />RickRickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-60484678566252435042012-12-19T16:19:21.268-09:002012-12-19T16:19:21.268-09:00Here's one of the online sites I follow to tak...Here's one of the online sites I follow to take a look out a few days at the weather: http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-sfc-temperature-and-wind-forecast.htm There may be better ones and I'd like to see some links if available.<br /><br />It's only one model, but temps and precip tend to follow the flow. Seems like now we are yet again being impacted by the 300 mb jet loop up over Siberia and down over Alaska until next week when a change may occur. <br /><br />I also wonder what blocking effects, if any, are contributing to the recent patterns? Have to learn somehow, so why not here? <br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.com