tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post1553752831276035412..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Optimum Climate Normals and FairbanksRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-9821040551871205472013-03-29T20:49:30.587-08:002013-03-29T20:49:30.587-08:00Some of the March "dip" may simply be &q...Some of the March "dip" may simply be "reversion to the mean", as 1981-2010 has at least five of the warmest Marches of record in the sample. Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-8901927761894812162013-03-27T21:59:09.227-08:002013-03-27T21:59:09.227-08:00Rick, a couple of years ago a ran an analysis of m...Rick, a couple of years ago a ran an analysis of monthly temperature anamolies against various telleconnection indices. Interestingly, the month with the strongest correlations was February. Anecdotally, it seems like long term blocking patterns have set up in January and March in most of the prior 5 years. Coincidentally, the patterns have shifted with the changing of the calendar - which has the practical effect of magnifying the disparities. Brian Brettschneidernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-12668484223898312032013-03-24T13:38:06.426-08:002013-03-24T13:38:06.426-08:00Hi Richard,
I believe you spot on for causes. I&#...Hi Richard,<br /><br />I believe you spot on for causes. I'm working on extending this analysis for other locations this weekend. Thus far, it looks like what you would expect with the decline in sea ice and a negative PDO.Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-41626324822509776362013-03-24T12:53:29.526-08:002013-03-24T12:53:29.526-08:00Thanks for the interesting analysis. So, colder w...Thanks for the interesting analysis. So, colder winters and warmer spring and autumn recently, with a notably sharper transition to deep winter from October to November.<br /><br />One wonders about the causes... perhaps the diminished Arctic sea ice is related to the autumn warmth and the negative PDO phase to the winter cold. Would be interesting to examine maps of the monthly changes to see how localized or extensive the differences are. My guess is, more autumn warmth in the north, more winter cold in the interior, west and south.<br /><br />Richard<br />Richard Jamesnoreply@blogger.com