tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post2416283990078600386..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Forecast DifferenceRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-77195680265655847232015-08-23T04:49:40.093-08:002015-08-23T04:49:40.093-08:00Thanks for reading. I won't get into the clim...Thanks for reading. I won't get into the climate change debate, but would point out that short-range deterministic weather forecast models are unquestionably better than statistical models when it comes to forecasting broad circulation patterns and weather features. Statistical predictors can begin to add value as the so-called butterfly effect takes over in the medium-range forecast, although the dynamical models are still very useful all the way out to the seasonal timescale and perhaps beyond.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-42368388562241458602015-08-22T07:50:57.217-08:002015-08-22T07:50:57.217-08:00I should have stated that the clipping appeared in...I should have stated that the clipping appeared in :<br />Friday, Aug. 21, 2015 Edition,<br />Which had some good videos about Alaska Ice Roads, and Dog Sleds, and other ice travel videos too. Friday's edition had a lot of stuff about ice. Saturday's edition will be .... who knows.<br /><br />Find Friday, Aug. 21, 2015 Edition in the "Archives" if you missed it. Find loads more interesting News, Papers, and Opinion, with a daily selection of the best Climate related videos, from the Web, and a variety of graphs, charts, images, and cartoons as well.<br /><br />I shall certainly look in to your blog again, now that I know of it's existence. It is refreshing to see the data presented, without some green hokum attached, or "woe is me" type propaganda.<br /><br /> Thank You !<br />The Editorhttps://paper.li/e-1432814330noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-1521078295124868682015-08-22T07:33:58.957-08:002015-08-22T07:33:58.957-08:00Reblogged on "Climate Change Chronicle" ...Reblogged on "Climate Change Chronicle" @ paper.li<br /><br />This is interesting, because it does show the variability in the models quite strikingly. Of course the climate is a chaotic object, and those models are mere attempts at extrapolation from measured data. They would do better if they referred to known historical repeating patterns. Models based on repeating patterns, and known behaviours of certain blocking patterns, within the Jetstream are most likely to be sucessful, at least in the short to mid-term. Long-term nobody can really be certain, though the balance of probabilities is that we are heading for a cold spell.<br /><br />I say we, and mean the Worldly "We", but history has shown, that during persistent blocking patterns, which cool Canada, and the Eastern Seaboard of The USA, and Continental Europe, Northern China, and Russia, perversely this has led to a slight overall warming of the Alaska peninsula, as warm air currents from the Equatorial regions enter the Arctic circulation at that point.<br /><br />"Global" cooling can mean "warming", at least in Alaska. So then there is an opportunity for specimen plant growers to increase World Records for Cabbages, and many other vegetables. Alaska already hold a surprising number of World records, and of course this is due to the increased day length in the Summer growing season. With increased temperatures, this can only be good news for Alaskans, and not just with specimen vegetables either. Think what this could mean for Alaskan agriculture in the short to mid-term ! The Editorhttps://paper.li/e-1432814330noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-87959318530123893022015-08-21T16:42:58.617-08:002015-08-21T16:42:58.617-08:00 Follow typhoon progress: http://www.usno.navy.mil... Follow typhoon progress: http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-36340440616904452492015-08-21T13:17:23.061-08:002015-08-21T13:17:23.061-08:00Good comment, Gary. Super-typhoon Atsani is about...Good comment, Gary. Super-typhoon Atsani is about to recurve and I suspect the Alaska forecast hinges on how that goes, i.e. where does the energy/circulation go and how does the capturing trough evolve.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-79686651855394265582015-08-21T13:11:33.311-08:002015-08-21T13:11:33.311-08:00Eric, the CMC forecast shows a classic rex block p...Eric, the CMC forecast shows a classic rex block pattern, but I don't know if this is more or less stable than other blocking patterns. I expect there are some systematic differences in stability and persistence.<br /><br />Not sure about other models - these 3 are the leading medium-range models and I don't have quick access to others.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-75133399203567209142015-08-21T12:58:46.577-08:002015-08-21T12:58:46.577-08:00It's about time for ex-Tropical depressions to...It's about time for ex-Tropical depressions to come scooting NE towards Alaska. They can affect us and their course ultimately determines our weather during their presence. Their course can bring cool/wet or warm dry depending on your location in Alaska.<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-46994117159738056502015-08-21T12:22:36.550-08:002015-08-21T12:22:36.550-08:00Fall and spring are fairly variable as compared to...Fall and spring are fairly variable as compared to winter and summer. So I'm not too suprised at some discrepancy. But the differences between the models are rather striking, especially when 2 of the 3 usually line up rather well. How does the few other models compare?<br /><br />This also made me think: does the orientation of the trough or ridge axis have an effect on persistence? An east-west ridge might be harder to dislodge with a east-west system since there is more to move and the target is smaller.Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.com