tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post3328020523239577322..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Severe Cold Spell PossibleRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-7894200910921582632017-01-10T20:35:53.909-09:002017-01-10T20:35:53.909-09:00Thanks Rick for the reference...looks like potenti...Thanks Rick for the reference...looks like potentially ~22F colder under clear skies during those conditions. So yes -50's F is a potential but perhaps the forecast I linked below will prove correct and upper air moisture will offer some clouds in some areas. <br /><br />Another good NWS comment source I forgot to mention: <br /><br />https://twitter.com/NWSFairbanks<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-36203791604077464462017-01-10T20:10:55.029-09:002017-01-10T20:10:55.029-09:00Here's a quick example of the diff between clo...Here's a quick example of the diff between clouds and clear from the 1999 event with little change in airmass:<br /><br />Feb 02, 1999 3am, light snow, sfc temp -34.5C, temp at ~285m AGL -37.5C<br /><br />Feb 05, 1999, 3am clear, ice fog, sfc temp -46.7C, temp at ~285m AGL -37.5CRickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-8906262458896201232017-01-10T19:43:09.386-09:002017-01-10T19:43:09.386-09:00The NWS is again doing an excellent job of providi...The NWS is again doing an excellent job of providing forecast analyses for the near future's predicted cold event. Gives affected folks time to prepare if they choose: <br /><br />http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=PMD&issuedby=AK<br /><br />http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=AFD&issuedby=AFG<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-89475005937773288962017-01-10T13:42:25.133-09:002017-01-10T13:42:25.133-09:00Gary, interesting question - I see no fundamental ...Gary, interesting question - I see no fundamental reason why cloud cover would affect surface temperatures less when it's cold aloft - but deep cold is associated with upper-level troughs that tend to produce more cloud cover and thus less inversion. High pressure is clear and calm, thus favorable for strong inversions, but also tends to be warm aloft.<br /><br />Some careful historical analysis might be able to illustrate these differences.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-14275127045469576032017-01-10T10:54:17.935-09:002017-01-10T10:54:17.935-09:00With 850 mb temps forecast to be -30 or below ther...With 850 mb temps forecast to be -30 or below there's not a lot of room for variance in cold at the surface. Sure low spots not exposed to wind can collect cold especially along river drainages or in pockets in terrain. And the inversion layer might be thicker than usual adding to cold depth and air pollution.<br /><br />I wonder how much cloud cover can affect surface temps versus clear under the forecast conditions? How many degrees of cold might some be spared? <br /><br />Gary NL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-28715832613326367982017-01-10T05:44:35.401-09:002017-01-10T05:44:35.401-09:00An critical factor will be the presence or absence...An critical factor will be the presence or absence of clouds (not just power plant effluent) and flurries. Fairbanksians may recall in the 1999 event we were spared several days of extreme cold but were treated to light snow & 30 to 40 below. Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-13326620883305613212017-01-09T17:33:30.301-09:002017-01-09T17:33:30.301-09:00There was a time when you could tell how cold it w...There was a time when you could tell how cold it was by the number of road snakes...rubber fan belts that decided to quit their day job onboard vehicles and head for warmer climates. That and how far ahead the street lights could be seen are good indicators in the ice fog. <br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-54131749299683412052017-01-09T17:18:01.229-09:002017-01-09T17:18:01.229-09:00Richard, you are famous again.
http://www.newsmin...Richard, you are famous again.<br /><br />http://www.newsminer.com/news/alaska_news/interior-alaska-forecast-calls-for-severe-cold--below-zero/article_d2f0b4e8-d6c6-11e6-afa7-33042cb0cf6e.htmlEric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-930632212594376752017-01-08T22:57:09.873-09:002017-01-08T22:57:09.873-09:00Thanks for the warning, and yes I've seen this...Thanks for the warning, and yes I've seen this forecast from other sources. The only enthusiasm I can suggest is from those that live in the hills above the potential inversion. The rest of us will adapt and endure. <br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.com