tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post3580512709829070545..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Are Fairbanks Septembers Getting Snowier?Rickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-63737181807425099912016-09-27T10:45:04.310-08:002016-09-27T10:45:04.310-08:00Blame me Eric...I put my snow tires on yesterday. ...Blame me Eric...I put my snow tires on yesterday. Funny how that works every time (actually I read the WX forecast and took due care).<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-25342176598824830972016-09-27T09:29:23.768-08:002016-09-27T09:29:23.768-08:00I walk out to go to work this morning and fluffy w...I walk out to go to work this morning and fluffy white water crystals are falling on my head. Winter is officially here.Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-91878910266924901382016-09-26T05:12:24.939-08:002016-09-26T05:12:24.939-08:00Very good. I find this quite instructive: in term...Very good. I find this quite instructive: in terms of statistical significance, a small number of massive outliers does not count for much, because the position of the outliers within the series could easily be random chance. Your instinct of "no trend" is sound.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-84126543692598847542016-09-25T17:08:51.520-08:002016-09-25T17:08:51.520-08:00Thanks for the thoughts Richard. The Mann Kendall ...Thanks for the thoughts Richard. The Mann Kendall test yields a tau of 0.080 and p-value of 0.26, so not much to hang our hat on there. --Rick Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-61517578686848308642016-09-25T12:26:01.166-08:002016-09-25T12:26:01.166-08:00Thanks Rick. It's a fascinating question. Taki...Thanks Rick. It's a fascinating question. Taking a step back, I'm wondering if we can say something about the trend or lack of it without assuming a particular distribution. It looks like the Mann Kendall test is a possibility.Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-480887556696122732016-09-25T07:52:51.023-08:002016-09-25T07:52:51.023-08:00Thanks Eric for your thoughts. Tweedie has been us...Thanks Eric for your thoughts. Tweedie has been used in several precip related analyses. The main difference between using a gamma and the tweedie for this work was that the tweedie produced somewhat more zero or near zero values. --RickRickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-88514645166269004032016-09-24T22:55:12.449-08:002016-09-24T22:55:12.449-08:00I'm not a statistical expert but I would be ca...I'm not a statistical expert but I would be careful in interpreting using an unusual distribution until the prerequisites are established. The wiki article mentioned that a tweedie distribution has a power law relationship between the mean and variance. Also, the rainfall isn't too Poisson in the limit; tweedie leads to pink noise and not white. Has this been looked at?<br /><br />The wiki footnotes mention two climatology studies using the tweedie. This is perhaps where you got the idea. But is the tweedie being used properly?Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-45652744301555850282016-09-24T20:27:26.045-08:002016-09-24T20:27:26.045-08:00Fellow readers may wish to revisit posts from last...Fellow readers may wish to revisit posts from last September's snow events...start from the bottom and work up. Cause and effects are discussed:<br /><br />http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2015_09_01_archive.html<br /><br />Gary<br /><br />NL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.com