tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post3610835536765963877..comments2024-03-27T04:17:21.221-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Cold This Week - Or NotRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-37115687117526264082014-11-29T07:18:05.602-09:002014-11-29T07:18:05.602-09:00Eric, yes... more wind means more mixing of warmer...Eric, yes... more wind means more mixing of warmer air from above. It appears this is what happened, with calm not persisting for more than a few hours at a time at the airport; also we had some high clouds to provide some warming. Lowest temperature -18F and lowest tmax +2!Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-56382189359536859472014-11-26T18:43:48.171-09:002014-11-26T18:43:48.171-09:00So the idea is that more winds means weaker invers...So the idea is that more winds means weaker inversion means higher temp. Still might need to plug the car in. <br /><br />Perhaps you could look at wind speed forecast lags and how NWS handles them differently than the models - like the temp analysis. If NWS forecasts for lighter winds than projected then that would influence their temp forecast via inversion breaking.Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-8528266810827453752014-11-26T08:32:48.716-09:002014-11-26T08:32:48.716-09:00Fun, isn't it? It appears the difference this...Fun, isn't it? It appears the difference this time is the expected wind speed, with NWS calling for 10mph winds tonight, decreasing to 5mph on Friday, and lowest temperature of -13F. Latest GFS MOS shows 0-1 knot winds and -27F (or -30 per the NAM MOS).<br /><br />If the computers are right we'll probably see the first -40 show up somewhere.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-90149280699423042782014-11-25T21:09:24.880-09:002014-11-25T21:09:24.880-09:00Oh good! A guessing game is afoot. My old thrown t...Oh good! A guessing game is afoot. My old thrown turkey bones say too much SE flow for real cold and the "H's"/ridge are displaced by a "L" ~ 60 hrs out.<br /><br />Ultimately the degree cloud cover will determine the surface temps. Dem' bones never lie too much.<br /><br />But next week? These folks might use the same bones: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif<br /><br />Best to keep an eye on any cold over the NWT moving our way this winter.<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-26185013794392386542014-11-25T18:07:01.627-09:002014-11-25T18:07:01.627-09:00Perhaps some NWS meteorologist have read the post ...Perhaps some NWS meteorologist have read the post on the forecasting and realized that they really needed some correction.<br /><br />The forecast disscusion I read this morning mentioned that the models were on agreement for the next few days. So I'm suprised that the temps were ignored.Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-21933363597767619832014-11-25T16:08:48.248-09:002014-11-25T16:08:48.248-09:00Agreed. But MOS very much exhibits the same tende...Agreed. But MOS very much exhibits the same tendency, as it is derived from a linear regression. MOS is often a first guess for forecasters, so in this case I think it's clear that NWS is actively discounting the guidance.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-86014667940100566412014-11-25T14:27:10.473-09:002014-11-25T14:27:10.473-09:00There is also a strong tendency to keep the long r...There is also a strong tendency to keep the long range forecast close to climatology farther out into the forecast cycle.Climatologist49https://www.blogger.com/profile/04560505931210357679noreply@blogger.com