tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post379268026041456930..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: 1871 Whaling ConditionsRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-51197397016506440792016-01-09T08:28:45.473-09:002016-01-09T08:28:45.473-09:00I hope so - I contributed with observations from I...I hope so - I contributed with observations from Iceland for this earliest period - but I have still not done any comparison within the new 2c version. Trausti Jónssonhttp://trj.blog.is/blog/trj/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-51085843243876367302016-01-09T05:19:41.133-09:002016-01-09T05:19:41.133-09:00Thanks for the interesting remarks, Trausti. I ag...Thanks for the interesting remarks, Trausti. I agree the ensemble spread should be very useful. Version 2c of the reanalysis goes back to 1851 and uses additional observations, so it might be somewhat better than the version which started in 1871.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-33913682683593329142016-01-09T05:13:53.018-09:002016-01-09T05:13:53.018-09:00I don't disagree Eric, and I wouldn't trus...I don't disagree Eric, and I wouldn't trust it at all. But I thought it was worth a quick look to see if the model showed any hints of what might have happened.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-45716937335765138752016-01-08T17:08:01.941-09:002016-01-08T17:08:01.941-09:00Interesting historical event and analysis. Surely ...Interesting historical event and analysis. Surely some of the ship logs remain, as well as weather observations pertaining to that time.<br /><br />This book about it all might have more information and observations: <br /><br />http://www.amazon.com/Oil-Ice-Disaster-Americas-Whaling/dp/0143118366<br /><br />As far as the propriety of the industry...yet again demand for product motivated the efforts of that era which led to world-wide maritime exploration. Today not so much, yet some cling to and claim cultural needs. Not on my list of favorites and I'll leave it at that.<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-61023925595990827272016-01-08T17:03:45.264-09:002016-01-08T17:03:45.264-09:00In the much better covered Atlantic the first thre...In the much better covered Atlantic the first three years of the reaanalysis are really bad. Most major storm events are entirely missing - for some reason or another there is a marked skill increase in 1874 - and further after 1882, but there are very annoying biases in the Atlantic arctic all the way to the 1920s. I don't know about the skill in the much more data sparse Alaska area. It is useful to take a look at the ensemble spread that goes with the analysis - it is very large in Alaska during the early years compared to the Atlantic. Even so - the analysis is a sort of a miracle and later versions will be better still. Trausti Jónssonhttp://trj.blog.is/blog/trj/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-69033283695095432932016-01-08T16:33:09.970-09:002016-01-08T16:33:09.970-09:00«soapbox» I personally wouldn't put much stock...«soapbox» I personally wouldn't put much stock into a reanalysis of 1871 weather. Today we can't go much beyond 1 week without significant errors and this is with a significant amount of observation data. How many weather stations existed in Siberia and Alaska in the 1870's? So why should be trust a weather model based on such scant data? I think that the model is choosing a best fit that is ultimately random. «/soapbox»<br /><br />Still, it's cool that they found a shipwreck from so long ago. Interesting how such misfortune decimated the American whaling industry - probably for a good thing.Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.com