tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post5349924738638910611..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Warm and Dry ExtremesRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-80042347427010623272015-07-17T10:23:25.746-08:002015-07-17T10:23:25.746-08:00Predictions for continued warmth for Alaska...30 d...Predictions for continued warmth for Alaska...30 day and long range as of yesterday. We could use an El Nino winter to allow more outdoor activity:<br /><br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html<br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html<br /><br />Visual short and long range outlooks: <br /><br />http://www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-35740855905282014442015-07-17T10:19:02.600-08:002015-07-17T10:19:02.600-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.NL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-84771684929544015042015-07-17T05:43:36.489-08:002015-07-17T05:43:36.489-08:00Eric, good suggestions. The immediate problem is ...Eric, good suggestions. The immediate problem is that they are not at all independent: they correlate at roughly R=0.5 throughout the year (with some variation). The approach you suggest may be more suited to independent EOFs like those of Hartmann 2015; the classical PDO is not confined to a single EOF, but at least we have independence.<br /><br />http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063083/abstract<br /><br />I'll give this some more thought. Thanks!<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-68806048766233672942015-07-16T13:06:47.465-08:002015-07-16T13:06:47.465-08:00Don't forget to review the Blob:
https://en....Don't forget to review the Blob: <br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean)<br />http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063306/full<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-15940729001827103132015-07-16T09:51:48.648-08:002015-07-16T09:51:48.648-08:00Here's an idea.
First, find the correlation...Here's an idea. <br /><br />First, find the correlation between the PDO and ENSO by month over the record period. Basically we need to see how independent the two indices are. <br /><br />Second, assuming sufficient independence, do a regression off of PDO and ENSO for the temperatures for each climatological month. Then we can plot these coefficients and see the relative relevance of PDO and ENSO for the different times of the year.<br /><br />Third, we can use these coefficients to estimate what our temperatures should be. Then the difference between what we modeled and what we observe can be explained by other unknown parameters.<br /><br />Fouth, we can then, within reason, estimate the temperatures of the long term forecast based on estimated PDO and ENSO values.<br /><br />While I expect this exercise to be only partly predictive, I think it would be a good exercise in statistics and informative in its own way.Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-60845480645743391672015-07-15T16:02:22.853-08:002015-07-15T16:02:22.853-08:00Eric, I agree. It would be interesting to try to ...Eric, I agree. It would be interesting to try to quantify the relative magnitude of the impacts at different times of the year.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-73139266346806251752015-07-14T21:38:40.239-08:002015-07-14T21:38:40.239-08:00A reminder of previous work done on the PDO and El...A reminder of previous work done on the PDO and El Nino: <br />http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2014/04/el-nino-and-spring.html<br />http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2014/03/el-nino-and-summer.html<br />http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2014/09/el-nino-and-positive-pdo-in-winter.html<br /><br />The above works suggested to me that while El Nino can be a powerful weather motivator, the PDO has a much larger influence. So with both indices being extremely positive, it's no wonder that we've been hot and dry.Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.com