tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post6867002302143658554..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Autumn Forecast VerificationRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-91293190083944464762013-12-12T05:35:32.243-09:002013-12-12T05:35:32.243-09:00Brian, I agree with you in one sense - the Septemb...Brian, I agree with you in one sense - the September anomalies were not representative of the autumn season and were quickly erased from memory by the later warmth. But I would argue that the large-scale pattern was quite different for September as a whole; the big ridge that dominated October, and has kept coming back since, was not evident back then. At the time, the cool spell in September was moderately significant, with the week ending Sep 24 averaging 1.35 SD cooler than normal, and the first sub-freezing daily mean (Sep 20) being the 8th earliest since 1930. I think the usefulness of the analogs is that they hinted at this evolution: cool September, warm October and November.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-53849729088043624972013-12-11T18:52:50.541-09:002013-12-11T18:52:50.541-09:00Richard, very interesting. My only quibble would b...Richard, very interesting. My only quibble would be with the first occurrences of a 25 degree day and the first 0.5" snowfall at Fairbanks. Indeed, they were early this year, but the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th events were (I believe) very late. The first occurrences were isolated anomalies in an otherwise different large-scale pattern.Climatologist49https://www.blogger.com/profile/04560505931210357679noreply@blogger.com