tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post8799754231052075087..comments2024-03-28T07:09:59.093-08:00Comments on Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate: Frequency of ExtremesRickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03946704894714514716noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-15114349441209383402015-03-14T19:04:39.705-08:002015-03-14T19:04:39.705-08:00Kodiak's climate is influenced by nearby water...Kodiak's climate is influenced by nearby water temperatures more than Interior Alaska. The strength of the + and - phases of the PNA is associated with similar strengths of the Aleutian Low. Their values and anomalies in relation to Kodiak's T850 observations may be worth investigating. Also, don't discount Solar SSN impacts on Earth's climate.<br /><br />Fisheries Climate is where the $ and research is focused in these brief examples versus overall NA climate: <br /><br />http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data/BCinclude.php?filename=in_NPINCAR<br />http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data/Images/Fig1PNA.htm<br />http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2329/abstract<br /><br />Gary the fish squeezer (who spent two years observing Kodiak's climate and never returned)<br />NL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-13602440689870625972015-03-14T17:49:42.874-08:002015-03-14T17:49:42.874-08:00Eric, I'm glad to hear that I'm not the on...Eric, I'm glad to hear that I'm not the only one who finds it interesting.<br /><br />Kodiak has had balloon observations since at least 1948, but I only used the data from 1958 as that is when the number of global radiosondes increased dramatically (with the International Geophysical Year). The reanalysis should follow the radiosonde data quite closely at the observation points, but this could be checked. I'll do a follow-up when time permits.<br /><br />If the frequency in the tails has decreased over time, then the frequency near the normal has increased, i.e. -1 to +1 SD. I calculated one standard deviation from the entire history (for each day of the year), so the fraction in each category can change over time. I too find it surprising to see no evidence of increased extremes in recent years. More on that to follow.<br />Richard Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08313902028896263276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-39672891584795333462015-03-14T11:15:10.747-08:002015-03-14T11:15:10.747-08:00Examining the associated pressure extremes would b...Examining the associated pressure extremes would be interesting. There's quite some current interest in studying the trends of the teleconnections associated with the PNA and NAO. <br /><br />Ref: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml<br /><br />GaryNL7Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874712728971005352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4572286363399496963.post-84198296889073283112015-03-14T09:14:25.957-08:002015-03-14T09:14:25.957-08:00Interesting idea, Richard!
How long has Kodiak ha...Interesting idea, Richard!<br /><br />How long has Kodiak had weather records? How much of the red is based on actual input and how much is the model estimating? I would like to know how reasonable such a extreme deviation from the norm is. <br /><br />Also, could you put together a simple line chart for the deviation data table? That will make it easier to see the distribution become wider for Kodiak versus the North Atlantic.<br /><br />The extreme Alaskan deviations might track an occasional change in the Aleutian Low and subsequent storm track. This would lead to overall changes in temperature and precipitation in Alaska. <br /><br />I'm a little surprised that deviations are lower after the 1976 PDO change. Other analysis on this blog has suggested that overall deviations have increased over the years. And if the deviations of Kodiak have decreased for 1, 2, and 3 SD, where in the distribution has it increased? The overall area of the distribution must remain the same through time, right? Eric Lundellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17914784378747801359noreply@blogger.com