Big Storm Coming

Weather warnings have been hoisted for Alaska's west coast as well as the central and northwestern interior, as a major storm is set to develop over Russia's Kamchatka peninsula tomorrow and then move northeastward, bringing impacts to Alaska starting on Sunday.  According to weather models, it's going to be a big one - potentially one of the strongest on record for the time of year over far eastern Russia.

The storm is developing along a frontal boundary to the north of Japan, as cold air pushes east from Siberia and encounters very warm conditions over the northwestern Pacific.  It's been notably cold in recent days in eastern Siberia, with the notoriously cold town of Verkhoyansk dropping below -30°C (-22°F) the last three nights.

Here's a look at projected MSLP and precipitation from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon, according to the leading ECMWF model.

The expected minimum MSLP of 957mb over far eastern Russia on Sunday afternoon would be a record low for October in that inland location, although sub-950mb MSLP has occurred before over the Gulf of Anadyr (based on ERA5 data):

The NWS discussion says it well: "It doesn`t matter how you slice it, this storm will have some extreme values associated with it from a climatological standpoint, as the upper jet streak of 180 knots, the precipitable water values near record levels for this time of year, and total precip amounts (for this time of year) are pretty much off the charts in terms of anomaly/return intervals."

Snowfall is expected to be "extreme" and/or "epic" (to quote the NWS) for western and south-central Brooks Range locations.

The upper-level forecast charts show the very powerful jet stream that will move across western and northern Alaska:

And the 500mb charts highlight the extreme contrast between warmth and ridging to the south, and the cold trough to the northwest.

Batten down the hatches!  It's going to be a wild few days for western and northern Alaska.

In the meantime, here are a couple of webcam photos from Koyuk today, showing freeze-up on the river as it flows into Norton Bay:

 

Overnight temperatures were well below 0°F last night in the hills to the north of Fairbanks, as well as the Yukon Flats and other northern interior spots.  The Beaver RAWS reached -16°F, and Bettles saw -8°F.  This kind of cold isn't usually seen until late October or early November, although of course it varies; in the past Bettles has been this cold as early as October 5th (1958) or, more recently, October 15th (2008).