Friday, August 28, 2026

Very Wet

The past several days have been very wet across western Alaska, as strong westerly winds aloft have transported moisture-laden air into the state.  Estimated 7-day rainfall totals have exceeded 2.5 inches over a wide area, and just yesterday Kaltag reported a daily total of 1.53", taking the August to-date total to nearly 8" there.  Nome is at 6.3" for the month, which puts this month in the top 10 for highest August rain totals.


The NWS precipitation return-frequency viewer indicates a return period of 10-25+ years from the Nulato Hills towards McGrath, highlighting the historically unusual rainfall amounts.


A 30-day percent-of-normal analysis shows that August will go into the books with a big west-east contrast in precipitation:


The westerly flow regime of the past week has developed in response to relatively high pressure over the Aleutians and unusually low pressure in the Arctic, and the source origin of the moist air has been over the (unusually warm) northwestern Pacific.  Here's a forecast map from last Sunday evening showing the mid-atmosphere flow pattern for Monday-Friday of this week:


Tuesday evening saw strong west-southwest winds in the Fairbanks area as a strong front moved through:


There's a lot more rain on the way, and likely extending farther east in the coming days.  The NWS emphasizes the northwestern interior with particularly unusual conditions in the next 10 days, but the overall wet signal is widespread.



The CPC confirms the broad wet signal through the first week of September.  Not great for fall foliage viewing.



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