Wet Weather and Warm Signals

I promised a post on Arctic sea ice conditions, but first a comment is needed on more wet weather across most of western and southwestern Alaska.  NWS estimates indicate over 1.5 inches over a very wide area in the last few days.

McGrath's year-to-date precipitation is now the highest on record at nearly 15 inches.  Normal annual-total precipitation is about 18 inches in McGrath, and the typically wet months of August and September still mostly lie ahead.

Two weeks ago I noted flooding on the Yentna River (a lower tributary of the Susitna), and the gauge near Lake Creek now reports a record-high water level:

With strong low pressure and storminess in the Bering Sea, southerly flow has brought very warm weather to eastern and northern Alaska.  Notably, the Umiat RAWS reached 79°F yesterday.  There are strong signals for more warm weather in the coming weeks, and it will be interesting to see if August could end up warmer than July on a statewide average basis this year.  That hasn't happened since 1977, when August was the second warmest on record (2004 holds the record).

Considering how things have been going in Alaska since last December (see below), a change to persistent warmth would indeed be a major reversal.  It may well signal the emerging influence of the developing record El Niño, which is now shaking up weather and climate patterns all around the globe.