Friday, November 30, 2012

Where is the Coldest Place in Alaska?

Regular reader Richard commented that Chicken frequently is cited as a place reporting very low minimum temperatures and asks what is the coldest place in Alaska. This is a question I regularly get, so here you go.

The first thing to keep in mind is the lack of good climate data over vast swaths of Interior and northern Alaska. Since the mid 1950s there have been only two Weather Service Offices in Interior Alaska (Fairbanks and McGrath), an area of something like 300,000 square miles. This is reasonably supplemented by several long term FAA stations: Northway, Big Delta/Fort Greely, Tanana, Bettles. Barrow is the ONLY long term climate site still operating on the North Slope, an area of about 85,000 square miles. There are a handful of long term sites (from a variety of observers) that are useful: Galena and Eagle, and some in the immediate Fairbanks. Everything else is hit or miss. Places you might think should have good long term climate data simply do not (e.g. Fort Yukon, Manley Hot Springs).

The lowest official temperature of record in Alaska is -80F, set in January 1971 at Prospect Creek, which was a pipeline construction camp at Mile 135 Dalton Highway (yes, there are many claims of lower temperatures). The lowest monthly average temperature (NCDC 1981-2010 normals) is Umiat, on the banks of the Colville River, about 140 miles southwest of Prudhoe Bay, with a January normal temperature of -21.3F, and a winter (Dec-Feb) normal of -19.3F.

Umiat, which started out as a Navy station during World War 2, is these days a logistics supply base for oil exploration and general access to the central inland North Slope. One family called Umiat home from the mid 1970s til about 2000, but before and after it is similar to Prudhoe Bay, in the it's no one's home but there are people there working in one capacity or another.

Umiat has the lowest winter mean temperature of any "settlement" in Alaska. That I am confident of (I wrote a paper about this back in the mid 1980s). However, based on 25 years of looking at weather satellite imagery of Alaska, I'm confident there are places upriver from Umiat that are colder. In fact, Umiat is often on the northern edge of the cold pool of air that develops on the north side of the Brooks Range. My guess is that some places southwest of Umiat (maybe near the confluence of the Colville and Killil Rivers) probably average 3-5 degrees cooler than Umiat. All these areas though are cold because it is hard to "warm up" rather than the super low temperatures that have historically been measured in the Interior. The lowest reliable temperature at Umiat, and the lowest I know of on the North Slope, is 66 below in February 1987. Lots of places in the Interior have been colder.

Turns out that today is a good day to discuss this topic. To the left is a NOAA-16 Polar Orbiter infrared image from 630am Friday. There is not much wind and hardly any clouds over the Interior, so the cold air pooled in valleys shows up nicely. To start with, there is nothing especially cold about Prospect Creek, or any of the Brooks Range valleys (including current or former climate stations at Chandalar Lake, Wiseman, Wild Lake, Coldfoot, Arctic Village). They all can get very cold in the right circumstances. Prospect Creek holds the record low simply because there happened to be a climate station, which was open for less than ten years, during a deep cold snap.

The Yukon Flats can be very cold. However, it's at low elevation (generally below 500; MSL), and areas north of the Yukon River can be breezy at times, breaking up the surface temperature inversion. The Yukon River Valley above the Flats can also be very cold, though there is practically no human habitation. The only community is near the Alaska-Yukon border at Eagle, which is at 900' MSL but is prone to downriver winds, breaking the inversion. The areas downriver from Eagle are less prone to wind. but are at slightly lower elevations. 

The Upper Tanana Valley also gets very cold: it is about 1000 feet higher elevation than the Yukon Flats, and there are areas that do not get much drainage wind (e.g. Tok area, Northway and the Tetlin flats in general). However, the Upper Tanana Valley is comparatively close to the Gulf of Alaska (so gets clouds from that direction), and is also far enough south (Northway is at, gasp, 63N) that the sun has some impact on daytime temperatures except for very close to the winter solstice.

Which brings me to my candidate for the coldest area in Interior Alaska: the valleys of the Fortymile County. The Fortymile County is basically a high elevated plateau with winding rivers deeply cut into the plateau. The general elevation of the plateau is up around 2000-2500' MSL, with valleys, often very narrow, several hundred feet lower. The area was a focus for gold mining a century ago, but today is very sparsely populated. The Taylor Highway (BLM brochure map on the right), which is not maintained in winter, cuts through the Fortymile County, connecting the town of Eagle, on the Yukon River to the Alaska Highway. Chicken is the only community in the Fortymile County to have a post office.


The community of Chicken, and the current cooperative observer are in the valley of Chicken Creek, a small tributary of the Mosquito Fork Forty Mile River. Chicken does have the lowest mean January (and winter) average temperature in Interior Alaska, with a 1981-2010 normal January temperature of -20.9F (normal Dec-Feb temperature -16.3F).  There is nothing unique about the location of the coop station, Having been there, it looks to me to be completely representative of the area. It gets so cold because it is a high elevation valley well protected from any wind most of the time, maximizing radiational cooling. However, in spite of current NCDC normals, there is in fact less than 20 years of usable data from Chicken. If any currently active climate station can break the Prospect Creek record low, it's Chicken (which has been to 70 below twice in the past decade).

Chicken though is almost certainly not the coldest place in the Fortymile County. The short-lived O'Brien Creek co-op station, about 40 miles north of Chicken just north of the Fortymile River bridge was generally a bit colder (higher elevation, deeper valley) than Chicken. Because it was in a deep valley, it goes several months without actually seeing the sun.  It is in these kind valleys the absolute lowest temperatures are most likely to occur.

The lack of human habitation and the difficulty of getting automated equipment to work and record accurate extremely low temperatures makes documenting the extreme temperatures of this region difficult.




Thursday, November 29, 2012

Record Cold at Tok

One of my favorite places in Alaska was a bit nippy on Thursday...

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
944 PM AKST THU NOV 29 2012

...RECORD COLD AT TOK...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE THURSDAY AT TOK WAS 50 BELOW. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER 29TH OF 46 BELOW SET IN 1955.

THE RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER IN TOK IS 59 BELOW SET IN 1963.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE THURSDAY AT TOK WAS 43 BELOW. THIS IS THE
LOWEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF RECORD IN TOK IN THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER...JUST NIPPING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42 BELOW SET IN
1963 ON NOVEMBER 22ND. THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM DAILY
TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 29TH WAS 27 BELOW SET IN 1995.
 
$$ 
RT NOV 12 

A Cold November does not Portend a Cold Winter

To state the conclusion up front: the average November temperature in Fairbanks is of NO predictive value for the mean temperature of the upcoming winter.

November 2012 is going to be one of the coldest November of record (though not in the coldest three). What does this mean for the upcoming winter? Nothing at all.

Overall, the linear correlation between November mean temperature and the subsequent winter (December through February) mean temperature is only 0.12 (1919-2011). Looking just at the coldest Novembers, it is not any better.

Above is a scatter plot of the 20 coldest Novembers (1919-2011) and the mean temperature during the subsequent winter. Ten of those winters had mean temperatures above the 1919-2011 mean and ten were below the long term mean. Eight of the 20 Novembers wound up being colder than the following the winter. The coldest November (1926, with a mean of -11.2F) was followed by an exceptionally warm winter (mean temperature of +3.2).  

So feel free to forecast colder than normal for the upcoming winter. Looks like you have a 50-50 chance of being right. 

Getting Colder

It's getting to be positively winter-like in eastern Interior Alaska, with temperatures falling past 40 below this morning in some of the colder spots. Here's a NOAA-16 Polar Orbiter infrared image from 940am Thursday (White is colder, dark warmer). There are practically no clouds over the Interior except for a patch northeast of Fort Yukon.
Courtesy NWS Alaska Region
Some low temperatures this morning include:

Chicken Co-op: -52F
Tok CWOP: -50F
Dawson, YT: -46F
Eagle Co-op: -44F
Northway: -42F
Coal Creek RAWS: -42F

The low of -30F through 9am at the Fairbanks Airport is the lowest of the season thus far.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Super Duper Inversion

Fairbanks-land is approaching an inversion strength of 40 degrees Wednesday morning. Some 9am AST temperatures include:

Woodsmoke CWOP: -34F  (near North Pole)
Goldstream Creek: -29F
Fort Wainwright: -29F
Fairbanks Airport: -25F
UAF West Ridge: -15F
College Hills CWOP: -10F (near top of Baline Hill)
Skyflight CWOP: -3F (ridge above Goldstream Creek)
Nenana Hills RWIS: 0F (at FNSB boundary on Parks Highway)
Wickersham Dome +7F
Keystone Ridge: +9F

Monday, November 26, 2012

Low Snow All Winter?

Fairbanks is going to wind up with 4.2" of snow for November and just 11.3" thus far this season. This is only the 14th lowest autumn snowfall in the WB/NWS era (1930-2012) and the lowest since just 2006. 

What does this mean for the rest of the winter? To the left is a histogram of total seasonal snowfall for the 20 least snowiest autumns (Sep-Nov) since 1930. As you can see, winding up with more than the long term normal average has occurred just three of twenty times, which turns out to be the same frequency of winters with less than 30" for the whole season. However, 45% of winters have wound up with 55" or more inches of snow, so even with a slow start like we've had this autumn, there is a decent chance, based on the historical record, that Fairbanks will wind up with "near to above normal" snowfall.

Sunday, November 25, 2012

A Strong Inversion Morning

Quite a strong inversion has developed over Fairbanks as the airmass has warmed under the high aloft that is centered over the southern Chukchi Sea.

Analysis by Environment Canada

The temperature plot from the morning sounding shows a temperature increase of 16C (27F) in the lowest two hundred meters (note: I have reason to believe that the surface temperature that was encoded of -26.1C is too warm: I've adjusted the surface temperature to the value of 11Z Fairbanks ASOS observation).
Late Sunday morning temperatures in Fairbanks-land range from 11 above at Wickersham Dome to 26 below at Fort Wainwright. Here on Keystone Ridge, the temperature hit 10 above Saturday evening but has been mostly in the 5 to 8 above range Sunday morning.

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Denali Super Inversion

Courtesy of the FAA
On Friday high temperatures in Denali National Park included 7 below at Wonder Lake Rangers Station, 8 below at the Toklat rest stop and 18 below at an automated observation near the Wilderness Access Center at the east end of the Park, but a whopping +28F  at Eielson Visitors Center. Why was Eielson so warm? At 3650' elevation and on the side of a mountain, it was well above any valley based inversion and into the warm air under the big high aloft that is controlling Interior Alaska weather this weekend. To the left is the view of Saturday morning sunrise on Denali, as seen from Eielson VC, where it was +22F at picture time.

Still Cool

Interior Alaska remains in a cool and dry weather pattern with persistent, though not extreme below normal temperatures. Here's an update through Friday of the standardized daily temperature departures. Although not as monolithic as last winter, below normal as been the rule for more than a month now.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Noon Sunshine

The solar noon view from Beaver Village, looking south across the Yukon River. Nice sundog too.

Happy Thanksgiving Day

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1200 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

...THANKSGIVING IN FAIRBANKS...

THANKSGIVING DAY IS A SOLIDLY WINTER HOLIDAY IN FAIRBANKS. SINCE
1904...THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON THANKSGIVING DAY HAS BEEN 7
ABOVE AND THE AVERAGE LOW HAS BEEN 10 BELOW. THE SNOWIEST
THANKSGIVING WAS IN 1996...WHEN 6.1 INCHES OF SNOW FELL...WHILE ON
THANKSGIVING 1970 THERE WAS 36 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. OVER
THE PAST 107 YEARS...THE WARMEST THANKSGIVING WAS IN 1943...WHEN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 46 DEGREES. THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING WAS
IN 1927...WHEN THE HIGH WAS 45 BELOW AND THE LOW WAS 50 BELOW.

THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY 2012 CALLS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ZERO TO 15 BELOW. 

$$
RT NOV 12

Paltry Snow Cover

Here are some snow depths around Alaska the day before Thanksgiving:

Northway: 14 inches
Tok: 14 inches
Chicken: 12 inches
Circle Hot Springs: 12 inches
Eagle: 10 inches
McGrath: 9 inches 
Denali NP Headquarters: 8 inches
UAF West Ridge: 7 inches
Fairbanks Airport: 6 inches
Anchorage: 2 inches
Kotzebue: Trace
Nome: Trace

These amounts are all below normal except for the upper Tanana Valley, which is near or even slightly above normal.

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Why is It Dry and Cold?

Why has it been unusually dry and cold in Interior Alaska thus far this month? The image at the right, from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis, plots the mean sea level pressure for the first 16 days of November. High over the Brooks Range and low over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Hard to get much snow north of the Alaska Range with that pattern.

Just Like Winter



What I did at work today...
 
 
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

...COLD SUNDAY IN NORTHEAST INTERIOR ALASKA...

A COLD AIR MASS COVERS ALL OF INTERIOR ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...MANY AREAS HAVE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP
STRONG INVERSIONS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...IN THE UPPER YUKON
VALLEY AND ON THE SOUTHERN YUKON FLATS...WINDS HAVE REMAIN NEARLY
CALM. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO UNUSUALLY LOW
LEVELS FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER.

SOME LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR SUNDAY INCLUDE...

BIRCH CREEK....................46 BELOW
BEAVER CREEK (YUKON FLATS).....45 BELOW
AMERICAN CREEK NEAR EAGLE......44 BELOW
COAL CREEK.....................43 BELOW
CENTRAL........................41 BELOW 
EAGLE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER.....41 BELOW 
EAGLE AIRPORT..................39 BELOW

IN CONTRAST...AT THE FORT YUKON AIRPORT...WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN 
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
SUNDAY HAS BEEN JUST 8 BELOW.

IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA ALMOST ALL AREAS HAVE HAD WIND FOR THE PAST DAY...SO 
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

$$
RT NOV 12

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Inversion Busting Winds

After diminishing for about 12 hours late Thursday night and Friday morning, winds picked back up Friday afternoon, and in spite of clear skies, winds overnight broke through the inversion, producing dramatic temperature swings in valley locations. Here's a high frequncyplot of temperatures from a suite of sensors near Smith Lake, off the west end of UAF West Ridge, showing a temperature rise of more than 10C in just a few minutes:

Courtesy UAF/IARC
Below is a plot of the hourly temperatures from Keystone Ridge, Goldstream Creek and Fairbanks Airport. Keystone Ridge, where winds have been northeast 15 to 30 mph since late Friday afternoon,  shows steady gradual cooling.The Goldstream Creek site shows, like Smith Lake, temperatures rising dramatically Friday evening, with gradual cooling since then. This well mixed boundary layer reflects the turbulent mixing produced by the winds. The situation at the Airport is more complex. The temperature did not pop-up until just before midnight, and a pool of cold air sloshed back over the airport between 5 and 7am. This cold pool is now being eroded away.


Friday, November 16, 2012

A Bright and Sunny Morn

Courtesy of Alaska Climate Research Center

It's a lovely day in Fairbanks-land, with blazing sunshine and temperatures to warm the hearts of any Alaskan. Lows this morning include:

Woodsmoke PWS: -30F (near North Pole)
Goldstream Creek: -29F
Eielson AFB: -28F
Two Rivers PWS: -27F
Fairbanks Airport: -26F
UAF West Ridge: -20F
College Hills PWS: -13F (near top of Balaine Hill)
Gilmore Creek CRN: -5F
Wickersham Dome: -2F
Keystone Ridge: -1F
Clearly Summit: +1F

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Barrow Still Hot

Here's an update of the analysis of the ongoing ultra-warm autumn at Barrow, now that there is some sea ice in the area. Through the first 13 days of November the average temperature at Barrow is 9 degrees above normal (compare to Fairbanks, which is more than 8 degrees below normal for the same period). The plot shows the daily temperature departure from normal since September 1. Since September 11th, only two days have had an average temperature even slightly below normal. It is entirely possible that this will be the warmest autumn (September-November) of record in Barrow (current record is 25.8F set in 1998). 

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Strong Inversion Monday Morning

Here's a plot of the low level temperatures from the Monday morning sounding at Fairbanks. This isn't, overall, an especially strong inversion by Interior Alaska standards, but the steep temperature increase of 23 degrees in just 76 meters is quite impressive. Clouds moved in Monday morning and weakened the inversion in by the afternoon.

Monday, November 12, 2012

40 below on the Flats

Fort Yukon 940am Monday, courtesy of the FAA
The Chalkyitsik RAWS (which is half way between fort Yukon and Chalkyitsik) hit 40 below Monday morning. I believe that this is the first 40 below of the season. The Beaver Creek RAWS has been down to 36 below the Fort Yukon AWOS to 33 below. 

Blogging to Resume

I had to leave Alaska on a family emergency last and had limited internet access. I'll get to questions and have new posts soon. Rick