In yesterday's post I remarked that I hadn't yet seen specific reports of storm impacts for the west coast, but it turned out that the worst was yet to occur in the northwest, and specifically in Kotzebue:
Stormy weather began way back on Saturday in Kotzebue, and the highest winds (gusts to 55 mph) occurred on Monday morning, but it wasn't until yesterday that flooding became severe as the winds went around to the west.
I think what happened here is that a prolonged and very strong southwesterly flow built up a considerable surge of water in the southern Chukchi Sea while the storm's center was at its most intense over Russia's northeastern coast on Monday. When the circulation finally pushed east towards the North Slope on Tuesday, and the winds went around to the west in Kotzebue Sound, that elevated water rushed into the Sound and inundated the city rapidly. The "shockingly fast" rise of the water sounds very much like a classic storm surge event that is more commonly seen in landfalling tropical cyclones.
Below is a sequence of model analysis maps showing the pressure and winds at 6 hour intervals from 10am on Monday through 10pm last night. Judging from the severe impacts, it seems this was essentially a worse-case scenario for Kotzebue flooding.
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More news about the recent coastal flooding: http://www.nomenugget.net/news/high-winds-cause-erosion-and-flooding-region
ReplyDeleteThanks, Gary. I figured it was bad in Shishmaref, given the direction of the wind-driven surge.
DeleteElders are saying highest water in living memory at Kotz. There is of course no real-time ocean water level gauge and only a few past storm high water mark measurements.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rick. Do you have any dates for past major events that might be analogous?
DeleteNovember 1973 and the great November 1974 storms might be the closest.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rick!
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