June Climate Data

June climate data are in from NOAA/NCEI, so it's time for a recap.  As we all know, it was a very warm and dry June for the state as a whole: the sixth warmest and fifth driest since 1925, according to the NCEI data.  The only years that were both warmer and drier in June were 1936 and 1957, although June 2022 was very similar in temperature and was the driest on record in the NCEI dataset.

The warmth was most anomalous for the northeastern interior, and the ERA5 climate model (reanalysis) data backs this up:

Only June 2004 was warmer in the northeastern interior, and that was also the warmest June statewide, leading into the worst fire season in modern history.  This year's 300,000 or so acres that burned in June pales in comparison with the nearly 1 million acres that burned in June 2004 (followed by another 5 million in July and August).

ERA5 data confirms that unusual dryness was widespread from the Panhandle to the West Coast and across most, though not all, of the interior.

The circulation pattern that produced this outcome involved high pressure over the East Siberian Sea and low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska:

In winter this would be a cold pattern as cold air sinks into Alaska from the high Arctic, but in the height of summer a warm outcome is favored by ample sunshine heating up the continental interior (see below).  It's also worth noting that the exceptional warmth in the last third of June was driven by a trough in the Bering Sea and a big ridge over the interior, i.e. a more amplified pattern than the monthly mean suggests.

Wind was above normal in the Aleutians and western/southwestern Alaska, but mostly lighter than normal elsewhere.

But June is firmly in the rearview mirror now, as the pattern has been completely different in the last week.  McGrath tied a daily record low temperature yesterday, and CPC suggests the generally cool weather will continue for at least the next couple of weeks.  There have only been 4 years since 1925 when July was cooler than June on a statewide basis - will it happen again this year?  It's seems quite possible.