With the Blob disappearing and El Nino weakening, some have speculated that we are heading for a strong La Nina this next winter.
Is there any correlation to the strength of ENSO and temperature/precipitation in parts of Alaska? Would an ENSO of -2 maybe be 10℉ below average versus an index of -1 being maybe 5℉ below average? Basically, if we get La Nina, how cold will it get?
Thanks, Brian. I forgot about that even though I commented on it (facepalm). Moral of the story, with La Nina we could have average temps or 0.6 std dev (which is what in Fairbanks? 10℉ below normal?).
Eric, this will be a good topic for future posts as some kind of La Nina is rather likely for next winter. Doing my own quick analysis, the top 10 La Nina's produced Nov-Mar temperatures below the 1981-2010 normal 8 of 10 times in Fairbanks; 5 of the 10 were more than 5F below, but 4 of those were pre-1976.
Late winter (Jan-Feb) looks like a better bet for unusual cold than early winter (Nov-Dec) if La Nina does come along. Only 3 of the 10 were more than 3F below normal in Nov-Dec, but 6 of 10 were more than 5F below normal in Jan-Feb (and 4 of 10 more than 11F below normal).
Best enjoy the current El Nino condx in Alaska as it isn't very often we slide through a warm winter and Spring. I'm not liking potentially going back to another normal or cold one next year
With the Blob disappearing and El Nino weakening, some have speculated that we are heading for a strong La Nina this next winter.
ReplyDeleteIs there any correlation to the strength of ENSO and temperature/precipitation in parts of Alaska? Would an ENSO of -2 maybe be 10℉ below average versus an index of -1 being maybe 5℉ below average? Basically, if we get La Nina, how cold will it get?
Eric, here's a set of charts I made last month showing hoe Alaska fared during El Ninos. In the comments, I added charts with detrended data.
DeleteOops, forgot the link: http://on.fb.me/1Wie03p
DeleteThanks, Brian. I forgot about that even though I commented on it (facepalm). Moral of the story, with La Nina we could have average temps or 0.6 std dev (which is what in Fairbanks? 10℉ below normal?).
DeleteEric, this will be a good topic for future posts as some kind of La Nina is rather likely for next winter. Doing my own quick analysis, the top 10 La Nina's produced Nov-Mar temperatures below the 1981-2010 normal 8 of 10 times in Fairbanks; 5 of the 10 were more than 5F below, but 4 of those were pre-1976.
DeleteLate winter (Jan-Feb) looks like a better bet for unusual cold than early winter (Nov-Dec) if La Nina does come along. Only 3 of the 10 were more than 3F below normal in Nov-Dec, but 6 of 10 were more than 5F below normal in Jan-Feb (and 4 of 10 more than 11F below normal).
Best enjoy the current El Nino condx in Alaska as it isn't very often we slide through a warm winter and Spring. I'm not liking potentially going back to another normal or cold one next year
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Gary