Halong Analog

Prompted by a question from Rick Thoman, I looked back at historical data since 1950 to search for past storms with comparable path and strength to ex-Typhoon Halong.  The task was made much easier using the ERA5-based extratropical cyclone track summaries from the University of Manitoba and NSIDC.  I searched for sub-970mb storms that passed within a box between the Y-K Delta and the Seward Peninsula (see below).

The closest analog in terms of path and ferocity of the wind - as estimated by ERA5 - was a February storm in 1951.  Here's the estimated track (a very good match for Halong) and minimum MSLP (about 10mb lower than Halong at the point of closest approach to the Delta):

And here's the model-estimated maximum 10m wind gust:

This 1951 event produced Bethel's highest sustained wind speed measurement on record, 54 knots or 62 mph.  Wind gusts weren't reported back then, but 80+ mph (as indicated by ERA5) seems entirely possible.  Halong's winds peaked at 48 mph (sustained) and 76 mph (gust) in Bethel, although the measurement techniques aren't directly comparable.

The 1951 storm warranted the following comment in the monthly climatological summary for Bethel (click to enlarge).

The big difference with the 1951 storm is that it occurred in February, so it almost certainly wasn't a redeveloping West Pacific typhoon, and the impacts would have been different for coastal areas where ice was present (but I'm not aware of ice extent information from that time).

In just a couple of days we'll have the ERA5 data for Halong, allowing for a direct comparison of the model data for these and other historical events.