Friday, November 19, 2010

The ever changing Fairbanks rain threat

Numerical guidance is coming into better agreement (as usually happens) on the rain threat for Sunday afternoon/night. There is general consensus now that a cold front will move across the Interior as a trough aloft breaks through the ridge. In this scenario, precipitation would start as rain, changing to snow before ending, though the period of snow, especially in valleys, would not be long. The 18Z GFS is very aggressive with precip amounts. In any event, odds are that Monday morning is going to be a serious mess.

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