Saturday, September 3, 2011

Talas Coming to Alaska

Tropical Storm Talas made landfall on southern Japan early Saturday and will move over the Sea of Japan later today. From there the storm will head north and then northeast, and will be a deep storm in the northern Gulf of Alaska by Monday evening. At the right is the 12UTC GFS forecast for 10pm ADT: a 958mb low in the Gulf of Alaska this time of year is quite unusual, but this is a way to do it. The storm will bring plenty of rain and wind to the coast. Here in the Interior, the main impacts will be to produce some wind and keep it reasonably mild. A bigger impact comes with the eventual evolution of the cyclone: ex-tropical systems historically give numerical models fits, especially in the mid range. So will this storm pump-up a ridge over western North America, or spin down in isolation over the Gulf? Time will tell.

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