Saturday, August 31, 2013

Summer Temperature Summary (Fairbanks & Anchorage)

** Updated to answer reader Gary's question **

Climatological summer ends today in the northern hemisphere. Fairbanks ended the summer with their second warmest average temperature on record. They finished with average temperature of 63.5F. This is a full degree below the record summer of 2004. In fact, most 1st order stations in Alaska recorded their warmest summer in 2004 (forthcoming post). Here is the list of top 5 warmest summers for both Fairbanks and Anchorage:

Fairbanks:
1) 64.5 (2004)
2) 63.5 (2013)
3) 62.6 (1975)
4) 62.3 (1988)
5) 62.3 (1990)
Normal: 59.7 (1981-2010)

Anchorage:
1) 60.5 (2004)
2) 60.2 (1977)
3) 59.4 (1936)
4) 59.2 (2013)
5) 58.9 (2001)
Normal: 57.0 (1981-2010)



As for precipitation, Anchorage recorded its 19th wettest summer since 1917 (5th wettest August) and Fairbanks recorded their 78th wettest summer since 1920 (17th driest).

---Updated Comment---
The warmest 92 day period of record in Fairbanks is 65.0F May 24-Aug 23, 2004. This year the warmest 92 day period was also May 24-Aug 23, with an average of 64.6F, which is second only to 2004. 

For Anchorage, the warmest 92 day period of record is also in 2004, with an average temperature June 3-Sept 2 of 60.5. This year the warmest 92 days was May 27 through Aug 26th, with an average of 59.4F
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Does this year's warm summer portend for a cold or warm winter in Fairbanks? Looking at the climate record since 1920, there is no predictive value in estimating what this coming winter's temperatures will be. The following scatterplot shows the summer temperature (y-axis) and the following winter's temperature (x-axis). For this exercise, I defined winter as November through March.