Yesterday I mentioned 2010 as a similar year for climate in the past, noting that the very high MSLP in Fairbanks yesterday nearly matched the November record high pressure that was set in 2010. That record was set on November 17, and within a week Fairbanks was shut down by a tremendous ice storm caused by record-breaking rainfall. Here's one in a sequence of blog posts by Rick Thoman during that 2010 event:
http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2010/11/rain-records-again.html
Alarmingly, Rick noted today that the forecast for the middle of next week looks very indicative of rain. It's still some way out, and the forecast could change a lot, but as we've seen many times in recent years, any amount of rain would be very bad news.
Let's hope the 2010 similarity doesn't play out any further.
No, just say no. The mid-atmosphere pattern shown in this ensemble forecast for next Wed (Nov16) would support rain across NW & Interior Alaska. I spent a career trying to avoid "wishcasting" but I'll make an exception here and try hard to wish this away. #akwx @Climatologist49 pic.twitter.com/JYIA3nGpMw
— Rick Thoman (@AlaskaWx) November 7, 2022
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