Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Arctic to Mid-Latitude Connections

Yesterday the scientific journal Nature published a brief but helpful summary of the state of research concerning the linkage between climate changes in the Arctic and mid-latitudes.  For context, bear in mind that a popular hypothesis in recent years has been the idea that enhanced warming in the Arctic slows the jet stream and therefore creates more blocking and extreme weather at mid-latitudes.  However, the real world may not have such a simple chain of causality; the article emphasizes how much there is yet to learn on this subject.  Here's a key quote:

"...the connection is not one-way from the Arctic to the mid-latitudes but also works in reverse, and observations and climate models give differing estimates of the extent to which mid-latitude climate is influenced by Arctic warming".  Also: "we have a poor grasp of how much of the Arctic amplification is caused by warm and moist transport from the mid-latitudes to the Arctic".


Update: see comments below for links to the workshop website, containing much more information.

10 comments:

  1. I'd like to know what data the modelers need beyond what's already available to improve their product. Maybe that was discussed at the workshop.

    Gary

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    1. Their Poster Session:

      https://usclivar.org/meetings/2017-arctic-midlatitude-workshop-poster-gallery

      Their Summary page:

      https://usclivar.org/meetings/2017-arctic-mid-latitude-workshop-summary

      Gary

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  2. Thanks for the links, Gary. Very interesting stuff.

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    1. I wonder if commercial aircraft were equipped with basic data gathering sensors if that would help the analysis progress?

      Weight and size are always a consideration as well as airworthiness approval. But with all the zooming around the world that's done it might be a way to gather more atmospheric information from currently unmonitored locations or elevations.

      Gary

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    2. It's being done.

      https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/04/tv-maker-panasonic-says-it-has-developed-the-worlds-best-weather-model/

      http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2016/05/panasonic_says_it_s_created_the_world_s_best_weather_model.html

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    3. I've inquired with a few people in the last several months and there is complete silence about the Panasonic endeavor. No one seems to have an update.

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    4. I haven't heard anything either. It is a bit mystifying.

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    5. Yikes! Yet another example of a Back to the Future revisionism:

      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/tamdar/papers/TAMDARsensor.pdf

      Gary (it was worth it)

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    6. Google shows absolutely nothing in the last 9 months. The chief scientist, Neil Jacobs, has almost no Google hits outside that media surge. I can't find any Linkedin profiles for him, Panasonic Weather has no personnel profiles, and Panasonic Avionics shows nothing about him. There is a twitter post last October from a oil conference where he is the keynote speaker. The official webpage https://weather.panasonic.aero (which the Wayback Machine puts as originally created in April 2016) is under construction (which in this day and age is really odd).

      From all of this, it seems that Jacobs is keeping a low profile (perhaps to avoid the spotlight). The fact that the website was created when the media hype happened tells me that the media stories got far more attention than expected. Panasonic probably wanted to test the waters for potential clients. They wanted a few select private clients so they are keeping things quiet. If clients want to pay for a service to give them a possible edge, why broadcast it? This is the nature of large private companies.

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    7. UAS in the NAS: https://www.nasa.gov/centers/armstrong/features/tamdar_edge_probe_system.html

      For sale tech?

      Gary

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