Saturday, September 14, 2013

Warmth Fading

Tuesday's high temperature of 71 °F in Fairbanks was very likely the last time that 70 °F will be reached in 2013, and it's fairly likely that even 65 °F won't be seen again this year, as the rate of seasonal change gathers pace.  The chart below shows the climatological (1930-2012) probability of reaching the temperature on the x-axis after September 15 in Fairbanks, showing that 70 °F is reached after September 15 in less than 10 % of all years, while only a third of years reach 65 °F after that date.  Note that the probabilities are about the same for the modern history (1981-present) as in the long-term history.

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