Below is the January climate summary, courtesy of NWS Fairbanks. Note that the summary says that the 45 °F on the 24th was the "warmest temperature recorded at the airport during the month of January" - this refers to January 2014, not the all-time record for January, which is 52 °F (Jan 16, 2009).
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 624 AM AKST SAT FEB 1 2014 ...MONTHLY WEATHER SUMMARY FOR FAIRBANKS ALASKA FOR JANUARY... JANUARY 2014 WAS EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AND DRY IN FAIRBANKS WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FALLING BELOW NORMAL ON ONLY 4 DAYS...HOWEVER WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CAME TWO FREEZING RAIN EVENTS OVER A 3 DAY PERIOD THAT CREATED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND CLOSED MANY LOCAL SCHOOLS FOR TWO DAYS. JANUARY STARTED WARM WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST 9 DAYS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETED FROM 15 ABOVE ON THE 8TH TO 41 BELOW ON THE 12TH AND 13TH. 41 BELOW WAS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED AT THE AIRPORT DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY. WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNED AGAIN TO THE INTERIOR BY MID MONTH. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR HAWAII TO NORTHERN ALASKA ALLOWED A PROLONGED CHINOOK EVENT THAT LASTED FROM AROUND THE 20TH TO THE 28TH OF JANUARY TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE 20 TO 40 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURE SOARED TO 45 DEGREES AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT ON THE 24TH. THIS WAS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED AT THE AIRPORT DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WERE NOT UNIQUE TO FAIRBANKS AS SEVERAL SITES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SET RECORDS INCLUDING AN ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY OF 52 DEGREES AT DENALI NATIONAL PARK HEADQUARTERS ON THE 26TH. THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT WAS 16.4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO WHICH IS 15.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 1.1 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. THIS RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST OF 106 YEARS OF RECORD. THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT WAS 1.1 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WHICH IS 15.8 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE OF 16.9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THIS RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST OF THE 107 YEARS OF RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 7.6 DEGREES ABOVE WHICH WAS 15.5 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.9 DEGREES BELOW. 0.22 INCH OF PRECIPITATION FELL AT THE AIRPORT DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY WHICH IS 0.36 INCH BELOW THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OF 0.58 INCH. THIS RANKS AS THE 20TH DRIEST OUT OF 103 YEARS OF RECORD. ONLY 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT WHICH IS 7.8 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL JANUARY SNOW FALL OF 10.3 INCHES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALLOWED A HIGH PROPORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FELL TO FALL IN LIQUID FORM FURTHER REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW FALL. THE 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL RANKS AS THE 12TH LOWEST AMOUNT FOR A JANUARY TOTAL SNOW FALL. LOOKING AHEAD TO FEBRUARY WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF WINTER BEHIND...AND AVAILABLE DAY LIGHT INCREASING AT NEARLY SEVEN MINUTES PER DAY...A NOTICEABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL BE FELT...ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE MONTH. THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT INCREASES FROM 3 DEGREES ABOVE ON THE 1ST TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE ON THE 28TH. THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE INCREASES FROM 16 BELOW ON THE 1ST TO 10 BELOW ON THE 28TH. TEMPERATURES IN FEBRUARY HAVE RANGED FROM 50 ABOVE IN 1943 TO 58 BELOW IN 1947 AND MOST RECENTLY IN 1993. THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR FEBRUARY IS 0.42 INCHES. AVERAGE SNOWFALL IN FEBRUARY IS 8.1 INCHES. AVAILABLE SUNSHINE INCREASES FROM 6 HOURS AND 59 MINUTES ON THE FIRST TO 10 HOURS AND 2 MINUTES ON THE 28TH. THE OUTLOOK FOR FAIRBANKS FOR FEBRUARY FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS ALSO CALLING FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. OBSERVED LAST MONTH...01/2014 OBSERVED RANK AVG MAX TEMP (F) 16.4 7TH WARMEST OF 106 YEARS AVG MIN TEMP (F) -1.1 7TH WARMEST OF 107 YEARS AVG TEMP (F) 7.6 7TH WARMEST OF 106 YEARS TOTAL PRECIPITATION (IN) 0.22 20TH DRIEST OF 103 YEARS TOTAL SNOW (IN) 2.50 93RD SNOWIEST OF 104 YEARS $$ CCC
Looks like cold and crisp is coming:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/arT2mMonInd1.gif
At least the photoperiod and insolation are increasing to help moderate the daily temps.
Gary
Given the winter 2013-14 info shown above (relatively warm so far), here's a link to one of the consequences of all that:
ReplyDeletehttp://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst_pf.php?wmo=NOAK49PAFG&type=pub
and the source site:
http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/php/icedb/ak_it_color.php (dig around, there's more)
Ice depth can be a function of residual heat before freeze up, time of ice formation and subsequent time period, wind events during ice formation, air temperatures, and snow cover through the winter. Any penetration of the ice cover by liquid water from below can add to localized ice thickness through water overflow conditions and the melting of surface snow.
Gary
Thanks Gary. The first link you sent is missing a few letters on the end. Here is the full address: http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=NOAK49PAFG&type=public
DeleteI have noticed the last few years that the Chena River at Pike's seems to get 10"-20" thick early in the season and then thens out in February. Any ideas why?
Here in Southcentral most of our snow is gone and now that it is very cold (for us) the lake ice and soil frost penetration are really going deep. Someone at the Anchorage NWS office e-mailed me that a soil site in the Matanuska Valley had their frost depth increase from 10" to 31" since late January.
Not exactly sure Brian about Pike's ice, but once frozen that stretch of the Chena gets well packed by snow machines, foot traffic, and vehicles crossing the creek to get to nearby roads.
DeleteAny fluffy insulating snow cover is soon reduced to hard pack. Beneath the ice, the water warmed by the power plant upstream flows with relative warmth compared with water upstream of the plant. Waterfowl can reside year round in the open stretches.
So it may freeze early to depth, then thin via lack of insulation and increased input of warm outflow upstream during cold weather. Best guess.
With Spring warmth, careless motorists that cross that area often succeed in determining the depth of the river below the ice.
Gary
Another thought re Pike's ice...at some point after freeze-up the volume of water flowing in the lower Chena River likely declines then stabilizes. Gradual reduction of input from groundwater sources and tributaries as winter progresses would be the probable cause.
DeleteAs cold increases, the Aurora Energy plant (http://www.alaskapower.org/pdf/BukiWright.pdf) would increase it's heated effluent to meet the output demand for its services. That, coupled with a decrease in flow volume of cold water in the adjacent river, probably increases the water temp downstream leading to a reduction in the thickness of ice and open areas of water.
How's that for a pre-coffee SWAG?
Gary