The maps below show the ECMWF and GFS model forecasts of 850 mb temperature anomaly (shaded) for Friday afternoon, along with the 500 mb height (dashed lines); the models agree in showing temperatures more than 6 °C below normal over parts of the interior. Of course, this is still 5 days out, so the details will undoubtedly change.
Monday, September 29, 2014
Forecast Showing Cold Spell
The medium-range forecast for interior Alaska has taken on a cold look in the past few days and is now showing a cold upper-level trough being carved out over the state by the weekend. If this verifies, it would bring daytime high temperatures near or below freezing in Fairbanks and of course a good chance of accumulating valley-level snow. According to the long-term average, the establishment of the permanent winter snowcover is still more than two weeks away, but it can happen in early October - for example, the 2000-2001 winter snowpack arrived on October 5.