Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Cold Snap Gone But Not Forgotten

Temperatures popped above zero early Christmas morning in the Fairbanks bowl, with no return to the deep cold anytime soon. Here's an update of daily mean temperature anomaly plot.  Since October 15th just under half of the days (33 of 69) have had a daily mean temperature 1.0 or more standard deviation below normal, which is a pretty healthy run of persistent below normal temperatures. The average temperature during that time is -8.3F. So far, ten days this winter have had a low temperature of 40 below or lower, which is about the average number for the whole winter. However, the numerical guidance is now in pretty good agreement that sustained above normal temperatures will be with us for the next couple weeks at least. This close to winter solstice, in valleys at least, a warm overall pattern will be tempered by strong inversions developing any time skies clear for any length of time. But no more 40 below in the foreseeable future.

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