Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Updated Temperature Anomaly Plots

Here are daily mean temperatures and associated anomaly plots for Fairbanks for 2012. Recall that the shaded area on the top plot is one standard deviation from the mean, so temperatures inside the shaded area can be considerable "close to normal". Sunday, with a standardized departure of -2.63 was the most anomalous day since Dec 4, 2012, which had a standardized departure of  +2.73. 
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6 comments:

  1. NL7YDecember 19, 2012 at 4:19 PM

    Here's one of the online sites I follow to take a look out a few days at the weather: http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-sfc-temperature-and-wind-forecast.htm There may be better ones and I'd like to see some links if available.

    It's only one model, but temps and precip tend to follow the flow. Seems like now we are yet again being impacted by the 300 mb jet loop up over Siberia and down over Alaska until next week when a change may occur.

    I also wonder what blocking effects, if any, are contributing to the recent patterns? Have to learn somehow, so why not here?

    Gary

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    1. RickDecember 20, 2012 at 5:47 AM

      Gary,

      I think the main drivers right now are the lack of tropical convection. As a result, cold air has tended to be bottle up at high latitudes. The models have been vaguely hinting that more convection gets going later next week. US models available at:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE

      "NPAC" area is generally most useful for Alaska. If you like, give me a call at work Friday afternoon and I can walk you thru the complex set of options on this page.

      Rick

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  2. NL7YDecember 20, 2012 at 9:47 AM

    Thanks Rick, I'll work that link today as the ice creeps up the windows. Looks like next Fri or so before we'll see a regime change.

    Russia is suffering the coldest winter since 1938. They're a long way from any tropics. This may be a unique pattern for the northern latitudes.

    The latest CPC ENSO analyses (12/17/12) indicates average temps and circulation (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)

    Thanks again for the link.

    Gary

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    1. RickDecember 20, 2012 at 10:57 AM

      Gary, for week to month scale forecasts try this link to the Climate Forecast System:

      http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

      Lots of stuff here: for the quick look, the links at the bottom of the page "Monthly Forecast" and "Weekly Forecast" can be useful.

      Rick

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  3. NL7YDecember 20, 2012 at 11:15 AM

    Thanks for the link Rick.

    Here's today's CPC seasonal forecast discussion for non-tech users (me):

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html

    And their color climate outlook maps:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php

    Reads and looks like a cold one to me.

    Gary


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  4. NL7YDecember 20, 2012 at 11:45 AM

    Neglected linking the 30-day forecast for JAnuary above:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html

    Note the referenced negative PDO phase.

    Gary

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