Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Cold start…but Not Unprecedented

I've heard that the current cold snap over Alaska has been labeled by some media outlets as "historic" or "unprecedented". I'm not interested in surfing the net to find such quotes, but here's the fact: across much of central and eastern Interior Alaska, this is the coldest late November to early December since 1948. To the left is a plot of mean daily temperatures at Fairbanks comparing the two years. On the whole, 1948 was considerably colder, and that's the case for other places (e.g. Northway, Delta Junction). So, a claim that this is the coldest "early winter" in 65 years would be true, but it has been colder this early in the season before.


  1. The wunderground forecast for the 13th shows -56 minimum. Is that even possible lol?

    1. LoL.

      Record low at Fairbanks Dec 13 is -55F. I'd say the Wx Underground's "Best Forecast", is, shall we say, not.

      Models look lock in to a significant pattern change, with temps near or above normal and much increased chances for snow. I'll put up a post about this later today.


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    3. So looks like the actual low temperature for the morning of the 13th will be +22F. So a tentative 78 degree error.