Listed below are the main (though admittedly tentative) conclusions of the analog investigation, along with the corresponding outcome:
- Dry September in Fairbanks: incorrect 1.74" vs 1.08" 1981-2010 median precipitation. Three-quarters of an inch of rain fell on one day, September 11.
- First 25 °F frost in Fairbanks earlier than normal: correct Sep 20 vs Sep 26 1930-2012 median
- First 0.5" or greater snowfall in Fairbanks earlier than normal: correct Sep 18 vs Oct 6 normal
- Wet September in Barrow: correct 1.29" vs 0.59" normal
- Warm October in Barrow, Fairbanks, and Anchorage: all three correct, much warmer than normal
- Warm November in Anchorage: correct but only barely, 21.9 °F vs 21.3 °F normal
The discussion also showed maps of the 500 mb height and sea-level pressure patterns that have historically been observed in September following warm, dry summers in Fairbanks. Below is the observed September 500 mb height anomaly: this agreed very nicely with the forecast map, with one of the main features being low heights over the Chukchi Sea.