Getting Warmer Relative to Normal

After the early taste of winter in September, Fairbanks temperatures have been generally warmer than normal, and this trend looks set to continue - possibly in a dramatic way - as deep southerly flow strengthens across the state.  The chart below shows the change from unusual chill to unusual warmth in less than three weeks even as the actual temperatures have been relatively stable.

The computer model forecasts from this morning are showing a strong ridge building over southeast Alaska this weekend and then perhaps intensifying further next week.  Some of the solutions look quite extreme, but it's too early to pin down the exact outcome.  But regardless, warm southerly flow should allow interior Alaska temperatures to defy the seasonal trend for a while longer.

For those interested in the technical forecast, the maps below show the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean 500 mb height and 850 mb temperature forecasts for Wednesday afternoon.  The model agreement is pretty good at this point.