Monday, September 14, 2026

August and Summer Review

Now that August climate data is complete, it's time to pen a few comments on the unusual summer of 2026.

First of all, it's interesting to observe that August was the warmest month of summer statewide, and that's rare: it has only happened twice in the last century, in 1941 and 1959 (according to NOAA/NCEI data).  Here's this summer's daily statewide temperature index from UAF (note that this is an index based on departures from normal, not absolute temperatures):


In 102 years of data, June has been the warmest month of the year in Alaska five times, including a tie with July in 2024.  July is the warmest month in over 90% of years.  Of course, this breakdown varies with region.  Fairbanks more often sees June as the warmest month, and has never had August as the warmest month, but southern maritime locations more often see peak warmth in August (e.g. over 75% of years in Cold Bay).

August was also the first warmer-than-normal month statewide since last November, breaking a streak of 8 consecutive below-normal months (although April was essentially normal) - based on the 1991-2020 normal.  The last time 8 months in a row were cooler than normal was in 2012, not long before the sudden reversal (which proved enduring) to persistent warmth in early summer 2013.

Here's the mid-atmosphere pressure map from August, showing that high-pressure ridging became a prominent feature across all of southern Alaska.


The ridge was fostered by, and also acted to reinforce, much above normal sea surface temperatures from the Sea of Japan to the waters south of the Aleutians.  This is basically a negative PDO signal, although the warm pool is shifted slightly north compared to its classical position.


August warmth was most anomalous in northern and eastern Alaska: the North Slope was very warm indeed, and NCEI ranks the Southeast Interior division as the 5th warmest on record (but not as warm as 2023).



August rainfall was feast or famine, so to speak, with a sharp contrast between very damp conditions in the western interior and much drier weather to the south and east of Fairbanks.  It was also very dry in the Aleutians, courtesy of the North Pacific ridge.



Sadly, the very warm and dry conditions in the southeastern interior allowed a damaging fire to occur in Tok.  To quote Rick Thoman, "More than 40 homes in Tok were damaged or destroyed by the fire, making it one of the most destructive fires in terms of societal impacts in Alaska history".

The Tok fire illustrates the adage more often used in hurricane preparedness: "it only takes one".  It's no comfort to those affected, but the statewide seasonal wildfire activity was far below normal this summer - only 89,000 acres burned, the lowest total since 1995.


The very inactive fire season is in some ways a surprise, because despite the overall cool weather in June and July, there was a lot of lightning for a 3-week period in late June and early July.


Here are some maps to illustrate the spatial distribution of this season's lightning and its departure from normal.  The southeastern interior saw less lightning than normal, but a much larger area from the Y-K Delta to the western and northern interior was significantly more active than normal.





The Lower Yukon fire monitoring zone was the most unusually active region in Alaska, with a new seasonal record for total lightning strikes (data since 2012).


On the inactive side, the upper Tanana River region saw the most significant lightning deficit compared to normal:


The lack of significant fire growth in the wake of the June-July lightning onslaught can be mainly attributed to the wet spring, along with a notably cool May, preventing fuels from becoming very dry before the onset of lightning season.  Of course the absence of really warm weather in June and July helped a lot too.

As one example of the "missing warmth" in Alaska's interior, Fairbanks only reached 81°F for the highest temperature of the summer; this has only happened a few other times in the period of record.  The normal summer peak temperature in Fairbanks in recent decades is 88°F.  In contrast, southeast Alaska reached unusually high temperatures in mid-August, and the period of record does not show any other year with such a contrast (i.e. peak summer temperatures around 5°F warmer in Southeast than in Fairbanks).

Wrapping up the discussion with some maps of the overall summer climate anomalies, we see that southern Alaska and the central interior were generally cooler than the 30-year normal, but not dramatically so in most locations.



A more significant anomaly is seen in the summer's total rainfall, which was well above normal in the southwestern mainland and far below normal in southeast Alaska.



NCEI's data shows the central and northern panhandle regions with the second lowest summer rainfall in the last 30 years (3rd percentile on my map) - 2004 was considerably drier.  However, summers drier than this year occurred with some regularity prior to 1995, so the drought isn't quite as remarkable on a long-term basis.  Here's a chart for the central panhandle division:



Summer sunshine was most abundant (relative to normal) in the extremities of Alaska - west, north, southwest, and southeast.

It's interesting to see the unusual combination of sunnier and wetter than normal in western Alaska; this happened because June (long daylight hours) was much sunnier than normal, and August (typically wetter) was much wetter than normal - and these two months dominated the respective seasonal anomalies.

Finally, for completeness - July was windy in southern Alaska, and August was windy in the southwestern mainland, but all three months were notably less windy than normal on the North Slope.  With less breeze than normal, the mosquito season may have been an especially bad one for the long-suffering residents of the far noth. 



Friday, September 11, 2026

Windy and Wet

A strong pressure gradient across western and northern Alaska has been producing strong southerly winds today, leading to high surf and elevated water levels along the west coast.  The immediate cause of the stormy weather is a low pressure system moving from far eastern Russia into the Chukchi Sea, but equally culpable is the strong high pressure still hanging out to the south of Alaska (as highlighted in recent posts).

Here's a weather map from early this morning:


Webcam photos from Nome and Shaktoolik show agitated seas this afternoon:



Peak wind gusts today were generally in the 40-50mph range on the west coast, but higher in exposed and elevated locations:


The southerly flow has imported large quantities of atmospheric moisture; this process is often termed an "atmospheric river".  Model data suggest that today's precipitable water (i.e. total column water vapor) anomaly is well over 3 standard deviations above normal for the time of year in some areas:


It's no surprise, then, to see that a lot of rain has fallen in the western Brooks Range in the past 2-3 days, and especially today.  Here's a map of 72-hour totals (inches).


The Wulik River gauge near Kivalina shows the impact on water levels just since last night:


Looking southeast toward Fairbanks, the wet weather pattern is now pushing the Upper Chena River to elevated levels, and the forecast shows the river approaching the minor flooding threshold in the next couple of days:


Fairbanks airport has recorded 1.6 inches of rain so far this month, making it the second wettest start to September on record (first 10 days), but of course far more has fallen in the hills (e.g. 5.0" at the Munson Ridge SNOTEL so far this month, and over 8" since mid-August).

The wet pattern is also reflected in the amount of cloud cover Fairbanks has seen so far this month: the greatest on record for the ASOS instrument era (1998-present) for the first 10 days of September.

To round out the statistical summary for September 1-10, daily high temperatures in Fairbanks have been the lowest since 2004, and the difference between daily high and low temperatures has been the smallest since 1990.  All in all, miserably cloudy and damp weather at a time of year that is traditionally thought of as fine and settled after the conclusion of August rains (check out this classic Rick Thoman post from 2013: https://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2013/01/one-more-round-of-interior-alaska.html)

As for the forecast, it looks like there's more of the same until the middle of next week; but then a significant change to drier and cooler weather seems likely as the North Pacific ridge finally weakens.  The latest forecast even suggests a chance of a cold trough dropping down over the state in the fourth week of the month - check out the bottom right panel below, from Google's leading WeatherNext2 AI model (which is substantially better than any other model for forecasts beyond 7-10 days).



Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Wet Weather Patterns

Unusually wet weather has shifted from western to interior Alaska in the past 10 days, with upwards of 2 inches falling from the vicinity of McGrath to the hills north of Fairbanks.  A 30-day estimate shows 6-8 inches over most of the western interior, and that's over 3 times the normal amount for the time of year across the mid-Yukon region in the vicinity of Galena.




Fairbanks saw over an inch of rain late last week, and the Friday-Saturday two-day total was the greatest in September since 2016.

The 500mb height map for Wednesday through Sunday last week shows the same westerly flow regime that I highlighted previously, driven by unusual ridging (high pressure) to the south of Alaska.


Above-normal pressure to the south of Alaska is a key ingredient for wet weather in Fairbanks; here is a composite of the 500mb height maps for the 5 wettest 7-day periods in September from 1981-2025.


The composite analysis also shows that unusually low pressure from the Beaufort Sea to Arctic Canada tends to be involved when Fairbanks is very wet at this time of year.

The figure below shows the same Fairbanks-focused analysis for all 12 months of the year (click to enlarge).  The wettest weather in Fairbanks is associated with a North Pacific ridge in all months of the year except June and July, which are distinctly different; the wettest weather in high summer is instead linked to an Arctic trough axis extending all the way down to the Gulf of Alaska.


How about unusually dry weather?  Measuring this on a monthly basis (rather than 7-day periods), we see more variety in the flow patterns, but in general low pressure over the North Pacific favors dry weather in Fairbanks from September through April, whereas warm-season dryness (May through August) is particularly associated with a ridge axis over interior Alaska.




Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Back to Cool

[Update September 3: this morning brought a deeper frost for the eastern interior, and Fairbanks dropped to 30°F - the first freeze, and earlier than normal.  The usual cold spots were colder: 22°F at Goldstream Creek, 20°F at the Salcha RAWS, and the Chicken co-op observer reported a remarkable 11°F.  Data in Chicken only goes back to 1997, but this is the earliest on record for such cold; last year reached 14°F on August 30, but 11°F had not previously been measured before September 11 (2012).]

After a late summer climax of warmth in mid-August, temperatures have been on a steep downward slide for most of Alaska in the past two weeks.  The seasonal temperature change always accelerates into autumn for the interior in particular, but the transition from "summer" to "autumn" was especially sudden this year.



For now, temperatures are back into the "significantly below normal" category, and at this time of year that means widespread frost: many locations across the state dropped into the 20s Fahrenheit within the past few nights.  The coldest so far at Fairbanks airport is 34°F; the first freeze typically occurs in the second or third week of September.

Courtesy of NWS Fairbanks, here's a lovely pair of webcam photos from Eielson Visitor Center in Denali NP:




The chilly air mass of the last few days has reached the region from the northwest.  My previous post highlighted the west-southwesterly flow around the north side of the Aleutian ridge, but the flow orientation has shifted subtly to add a cooler northerly component over Alaska:


The forecast expects the ridge to shift east in the coming days, bringing a much warmer southwesterly flow pattern:


 

It will be interesting to see if high-pressure ridging remains a recurring feature near the Aleutians in the coming weeks and months.  The ongoing extremely unusual warmth in the northwestern Pacific may tend to favor a ridge near the Aleutians (or more precisely, weaker low pressure than normal), and that would normally be expected to keep Alaska on the cool side.


However, as winter approaches the influence of the very strong El Niño will probably have the opposite effect, favoring deeper low pressure near the Aleutians and bringing more warmth to Alaska, especially in the east.  Which will win out?  To my mind, this is more or less a tug-of-war between El Niño and the negative PDO phase; it's going to be very interesting to watch.

Friday, August 28, 2026

Very Wet

The past several days have been very wet across western Alaska, as strong westerly winds aloft have transported moisture-laden air into the state.  Estimated 7-day rainfall totals have exceeded 2.5 inches over a wide area, and just yesterday Kaltag reported a daily total of 1.53", taking the August to-date total to nearly 8" there.  Nome is at 6.3" for the month, which puts this month in the top 10 for highest August rain totals.


The NWS precipitation return-frequency viewer indicates a return period of 10-25+ years from the Nulato Hills towards McGrath, highlighting the historically unusual rainfall amounts.


A 30-day percent-of-normal analysis shows that August will go into the books with a big west-east contrast in precipitation:


The westerly flow regime of the past week has developed in response to relatively high pressure over the Aleutians and unusually low pressure in the Arctic, and the source origin of the moist air has been over the (unusually warm) northwestern Pacific.  Here's a forecast map from last Sunday evening showing the mid-atmosphere flow pattern for Monday-Friday of this week:


Tuesday evening saw strong west-southwest winds in the Fairbanks area as a strong front moved through:


There's a lot more rain on the way, and likely extending farther east in the coming days.  The NWS emphasizes the northwestern interior with particularly unusual conditions in the next 10 days, but the overall wet signal is widespread.



The CPC confirms the broad wet signal through the first week of September.  Not great for fall foliage viewing.