Like Clockwork

The calendar can be a remarkably good guide to seasonal weather changes at times, and especially in very continental climates where the pace of change is typically rapid.  The onset of widespread lightning across interior Alaska over the past several days is a case in point: check out the similarity between this year's accumulated lightning strike count and the climatological median (thick black versus dashed black lines): 

Based on historical data since 2012, the climatological median takes off right at June 15, and this year major lightning activity began on June 19.  Each of the past four days has seen more than 4000 lightning strikes statewide, and while the 4-day total of about 20,000 is not particularly noteworthy, the impeccable timing is interesting.

Last year saw a similar but more dramatic surge beginning on June 16: over 50,000 strikes in 5 days at that time.

In terms of spatial distribution, the most pronounced activity has been in the Kuskokwim and Lower Yukon regions, as well as the central interior (South and West Tanana zones).  Here's a map of the AICC Predictive Service Areas and other geographical divisions that I use to track totals (click to enlarge):

Compared to the historical median, the Lower Yukon region has seen the largest excess of lightning strikes, with the season's total already having reached the normal for a whole season:

In contrast, the northern interior has seen less lightning than normal, and the North Slope has seen only 10% of its typical 1200 lightning strikes to this date:

As for fire, statewide reported acreage remains minimal, despite the rather significant lightning outbreak.  There have been plenty of fire starts, of course, but "so far so good" in terms of containment and limited growth.  Significant rains were widespread today in the upper half of the Tanana Valley, and the southwestern interior has also seen good rains in the last few days - so that helps.  Perhaps lingering moisture from the very wet spring has been enough to hinder quick fire growth after all, despite concerningly dry conditions earlier this month.

The 2026 statewide fire acreage is still nearly indistinguishable from zero on the year-to-date chart below, with total acreage at only 17,000 acres compared to a median of 184,000 for the date.

Looking ahead, distinctly cool conditions appear likely to return next week, and there's also rain in the forecast, so the fire risk appears set to subside for a time.

Minimal Fire So Far

Interior Alaska finally saw some genuinely warm weather last weekend, with temperatures pushing up toward the 80°F mark in many areas; and Fairbanks saw its first 80°F of the season - a few days later than normal.

The mini-heatwave didn't last long, but renewed warmth is on the way in the coming days, and the predicted mid-atmosphere pressure pattern looks conducive to the onset of more widespread lightning in the near future.  The map below shows the expected 500mb height anomaly (departure from normal) for the next 7 days, indicating a broad axis of above-normal heights (i.e. a ridge) from eastern Russia to northwestern Canada:

Contrast the pattern in the first two weeks of this month, when a strong trough over the Arctic Ocean brought cool northwesterly air flows to interior and northern Alaska:

Atmospheric moisture has been well below normal for the time of year, and that means a lack of atmospheric fuel for thunderstorms.

No surprise, then, that statewide lightning activity is below normal and is now moving into "significantly below normal" territory; the climatological median ramps up quickly from June 15 on.  Click to enlarge:

Thanks to the lack of lightning, year-to-date fire activity is close to zero: only 5600 acres have burned statewide so far, compared to a historical median of 85,000 acres for this date.  In view of the weather forecast, this seems likely to change soon.

It's also worth noting that the past two weeks have been quite dry for most of the interior, a marked change from the wet spring; fire fuels have no doubt dried out quite a bit.

June Chill, May Climate

Yesterday NOAA/NCEI came out with their climate statistics for May, and it was the sixth consecutive month with a statewide mean temperature below the 1991-2020 normal in Alaska (although April was only marginally below).  It was also the third consecutive May with a cool anomaly relative to recent decades:

Significantly above-normal temperatures have been rather scarce in most areas in recent months, and Rick Thoman noted that many interior locations had their lowest May maximum temperature since 2000.  The statewide temperature index barely rose above normal at any time in the month, although the first few days of June turned much warmer.

As if to re-emphasize the cool theme, a very notable cold front swept across the interior and north yesterday, ushering in a very chilly air mass for the time of year.  Here's an enhanced satellite image showing the frontal cloud band at 3:20pm AKDT.  Blue colors across the North Slope and high terrain indicate snow cover, and sea ice is visible in Kotzebue Sound and along the northern Arctic coastline.

The 500mb analysis from about the same time yesterday shows the connection to a very strong mid-atmosphere cyclone over the Arctic Ocean.  Judging from ERA5 data, it appears to be one of the strongest - if not actually the strongest - on record for the month of June in this region.

Temperatures this morning were near or below freezing widely across the interior, with hard freezes across the northwest and Brooks Range.  The NWS (courtesy of Rick Thoman) noted that the wind chill of 13°F in Kotzebue at 5am was the lowest on record for this late in the spring.  Here are a couple of zoomed-in maps of minimum temperatures across the Arctic northeast and interior/Arctic northwest.

Looking back in more detail at the month of May, NOAA's data indicates that the Bristol Bay climate division saw its coldest May since 2001.  However, the coarse climate division perspective completely obscures the fact that it was notably warmer than normal in Alaska's northwest; Kotzebue had its warmest May since 2020.

The mid-atmosphere pressure pattern responsible for this odd outcome is illustrated below.  A robust trough over Alaska brought chilly and wet conditions to most of the state, but the setup was conducive to above-normal sunshine over the northern Bering Sea and southern Chukchi Sea, and it seems that helped boost temperatures in the northwest.  I think there was also an element of chinook/downslope warming over the Seward Peninsula and near Kotzebue Sound, as winds from the northeast passed over the Brooks Range and then warmed on their way back down to sea level.

Winds were stronger than normal across the North Slope and much of the interior and south of Alaska:

Courtesy of the wonderful toolset at the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, here's a comparison of the May 2026 wind rose (top) compared to the long-term normal wind rose for May (bottom) in Utqiaġvik:

While easterly or east-northeasterly winds are always heavily favored in Utqiaġvik at this time of year, the regime was even more persistent, and with stronger winds, than normal this year (compare the frequency of winds in the 15-20 mph category).

For the climatological spring season as a whole (March through May), statewide average temperatures were the lowest since 2013, mostly because of March.  In the south it was the coldest spring since 1972 in the NCEI data from Bristol Bay to the mid-Panhandle, including Anchorage (and since 1974 in Juneau).

Wet and cloudy were also major themes from South-Central to the northern interior; but the bright side, of course, is that an early start to fire season was avoided.

Surprise Frosts in Fairbanks

A few days ago, reader Carl commented that the National Weather Service forecasts for overnight low temperatures in Fairbanks seem to have been biased high recently, with many occasions of low temperatures near or below freezing when much higher temperatures were predicted.

To look at this objectively, I was able to pull a history of NWS forecasts all the way back to 2009, and it turns out that the mean absolute error on the low temperature forecasts in the month of May was the highest in the data set.

The errors, as Carl observed, were largely due to a warm bias; the low temperature forecasts were generally warmer than the corresponding outcome.

(A small caveat is in order here: I'm comparing the NWS forecasts for "Fairbanks Metro Area" to the outcome at the airport, and there are microclimate differences that vary depending on the weather pattern.)

Here's a look at the daily errors so far in 2026: the warm bias for minimum temperatures has been quite persistent.

For extra credit, I also did a comparison of the recent NWS forecasts with pure model forecasts (NBM - National Blend of Models) for Fairbanks airport - see below, with the black line in the lower panel revealing the frost and freeze events that Carl mentioned.  As we might expect, the NWS forecasts closely follow the model predictions, so we can basically blame the recent warm bias on the models.  Ideally the forecasters might have adjusted the model numbers to improve the results, and actually it looks like they did start making a downward adjustment to the low temperatures starting on May 25.

None of this should be seen as criticism of the NWS folks in the Fairbanks office, who cover the weather over a staggering 359,000 square miles, over 4 times more area than any NWS office in the lower 48.

30 Years on Keystone Ridge

It was 30 years ago today that Rick Thoman began climate observations at his then-residence on Keystone Ridge, about 15 miles northwest of Fairbanks on the other side of Ester Dome.  At 1600 feet above sea level, the data from this site provides a unique record of interior Alaska climate well above valley level.  I for one am very grateful to Rick for his 19 years of service, and to his successors who continue to this day.

Here's a chart showing the monthly difference in mean temperature between Keystone Ridge and the international airport in Fairbanks.  The elevation provides major relief from valley-level cold in winter owing to the near-permanent temperature inversion, but in the warm season the ridge is slightly cooler.

Daily high temperatures are relatively cooler in the warm season, as there is less diurnal cycle on the hill, i.e. temperatures at elevation are more closely tied to air mass temperatures and don't typically vary as much over the course of a day:

The relative lack of variability also means that daily minimum temperatures are much higher on the ridge in the cold season; but from May through September there isn't much systematic difference in overnight minima.

As for precipitation, Keystone Ridge is of course consistently wetter than the airport, and the difference is substantial in summer.

Interestingly, July is marginally the wettest month at the airport (based on the overlapping period of record here), but August is wetter than July on the ridge.  In July Keystone Ridge is occasionally drier than the airport (4 of 29 years), but only one August was drier on the hill (1999).  (I excluded a few months with more than 2 missing days at either site.)

Here are a few photos of the Keystone Ridge observing site at the end of the extremely cold spring of 2013:

https://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2013/05/more-snow-to-go.html

Cool Trends Persist

Cooler than normal temperatures have persisted recently in both southern and northern Alaska, and a quick glance at UAF's statewide temperature index confirms the decidedly chilly nature of this month for the state overall.  Indeed, the month-to-date average of the UAF index suggests this is the coolest May since 2012, and it might be the coolest since 2001 when the final numbers come in.

It's rather notable that Utqiaġvik hasn't yet reached 32°F this year, and if it happens today or tomorrow it will be the latest since 2001 or 2000.  If Utqiaġvik manages to get into June without a 32°F reading, it will be the latest since 1955.

Here's a map view of the temperature anomaly in the past 30 days, as estimated by ERA5 and ECMWF model data:

Note that the anomaly is expressed in terms of standard deviations, which gives a good sense of how unusual the situation has been: for example, 1.5-2 standard deviations cooler than normal in the vicinity of Cook Inlet.  The standard deviation is calculated for the same 30-day window as the anomaly calculation.

Here's the 500mb height anomaly from the same perspective:

Here's the link to view these graphics for yourself: it's a page that I put together recently.

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/wcs/era5_monitoring/

Clicking on the 2m temperature map near Utqiaġvik produces a similar chart to the first one above (confirming the veracity of the model data), but the chart also appends the latest (00UTC initialized) ECMWF ensemble forecast.  Cooler than normal conditions appear likely to persist on the North Slope in the next week or two.

Interestingly, the forecast suggests the 30-day temperature anomaly is likely to become rather strongly statistically significant to the north of Alaska in the coming days:

A caveat is in order, however: part of this anomaly could reflect a discrepancy between ECMWF's current forecast model and the much older model version that is used for the ERA5 reanalysis (historical baseline).  Many tweaks and upgrades have been made by ECMWF since the ERA5 version was implemented, and the new model may have cooler 2m temperatures over Arctic sea ice at this time of year.  We'll find out in a few weeks when the ERA5 data includes these dates and we can do the apples-to-apples historical comparison.

Nevertheless, the forecast does show a robust trough over the Arctic waters to the north and northeast of Alaska, so persistently below-normal temperatures are certainly plausible.

Bristol Bay Snow

In my last post I mentioned how cold the eastern Bering Sea waters are compared to normal, and as if to illustrate the point, snow was in the air at times today along the northern coast of Bristol Bay.  Dillingham saw mixed rain and snow for a couple of hours, nearby Manokotak had a period of snow, and out to the west snow has been falling all day on the elevated headland of Cape Newenham.

The observations from Cape Newenhem airport (elevation 541') suggest that snow was accumulating this morning, with temperatures below freezing and visibility below 1 mile for a couple of hours.

Looking back at the surprisingly complete history of hourly weather data from Cape Newenham, it looks like this is the most significant snow after May 20 since 1973.