Deep Cold: Alaska Weather & Climate
Objective Comments and Analysis - All Science, No Politics
Primary Author Richard James
2010-2013 Author Rick Thoman
Monday, September 14, 2026
August and Summer Review
Friday, September 11, 2026
Windy and Wet
A strong pressure gradient across western and northern Alaska has been producing strong southerly winds today, leading to high surf and elevated water levels along the west coast. The immediate cause of the stormy weather is a low pressure system moving from far eastern Russia into the Chukchi Sea, but equally culpable is the strong high pressure still hanging out to the south of Alaska (as highlighted in recent posts).
Here's a weather map from early this morning:
Webcam photos from Nome and Shaktoolik show agitated seas this afternoon:
Peak wind gusts today were generally in the 40-50mph range on the west coast, but higher in exposed and elevated locations:
The southerly flow has imported large quantities of atmospheric moisture; this process is often termed an "atmospheric river". Model data suggest that today's precipitable water (i.e. total column water vapor) anomaly is well over 3 standard deviations above normal for the time of year in some areas:
It's no surprise, then, to see that a lot of rain has fallen in the western Brooks Range in the past 2-3 days, and especially today. Here's a map of 72-hour totals (inches).
The Wulik River gauge near Kivalina shows the impact on water levels just since last night:
Looking southeast toward Fairbanks, the wet weather pattern is now pushing the Upper Chena River to elevated levels, and the forecast shows the river approaching the minor flooding threshold in the next couple of days:
Fairbanks airport has recorded 1.6 inches of rain so far this month, making it the second wettest start to September on record (first 10 days), but of course far more has fallen in the hills (e.g. 5.0" at the Munson Ridge SNOTEL so far this month, and over 8" since mid-August).
The wet pattern is also reflected in the amount of cloud cover Fairbanks has seen so far this month: the greatest on record for the ASOS instrument era (1998-present) for the first 10 days of September.
To round out the statistical summary for September 1-10, daily high temperatures in Fairbanks have been the lowest since 2004, and the difference between daily high and low temperatures has been the smallest since 1990. All in all, miserably cloudy and damp weather at a time of year that is traditionally thought of as fine and settled after the conclusion of August rains (check out this classic Rick Thoman post from 2013: https://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2013/01/one-more-round-of-interior-alaska.html)
As for the forecast, it looks like there's more of the same until the middle of next week; but then a significant change to drier and cooler weather seems likely as the North Pacific ridge finally weakens. The latest forecast even suggests a chance of a cold trough dropping down over the state in the fourth week of the month - check out the bottom right panel below, from Google's leading WeatherNext2 AI model (which is substantially better than any other model for forecasts beyond 7-10 days).
Tuesday, September 8, 2026
Wet Weather Patterns
Unusually wet weather has shifted from western to interior Alaska in the past 10 days, with upwards of 2 inches falling from the vicinity of McGrath to the hills north of Fairbanks. A 30-day estimate shows 6-8 inches over most of the western interior, and that's over 3 times the normal amount for the time of year across the mid-Yukon region in the vicinity of Galena.
Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Back to Cool
[Update September 3: this morning brought a deeper frost for the eastern interior, and Fairbanks dropped to 30°F - the first freeze, and earlier than normal. The usual cold spots were colder: 22°F at Goldstream Creek, 20°F at the Salcha RAWS, and the Chicken co-op observer reported a remarkable 11°F. Data in Chicken only goes back to 1997, but this is the earliest on record for such cold; last year reached 14°F on August 30, but 11°F had not previously been measured before September 11 (2012).]
After a late summer climax of warmth in mid-August, temperatures have been on a steep downward slide for most of Alaska in the past two weeks. The seasonal temperature change always accelerates into autumn for the interior in particular, but the transition from "summer" to "autumn" was especially sudden this year.
The forecast expects the ridge to shift east in the coming days, bringing a much warmer southwesterly flow pattern:
It will be interesting to see if high-pressure ridging remains a recurring feature near the Aleutians in the coming weeks and months. The ongoing extremely unusual warmth in the northwestern Pacific may tend to favor a ridge near the Aleutians (or more precisely, weaker low pressure than normal), and that would normally be expected to keep Alaska on the cool side.
Friday, August 28, 2026
Very Wet
The past several days have been very wet across western Alaska, as strong westerly winds aloft have transported moisture-laden air into the state. Estimated 7-day rainfall totals have exceeded 2.5 inches over a wide area, and just yesterday Kaltag reported a daily total of 1.53", taking the August to-date total to nearly 8" there. Nome is at 6.3" for the month, which puts this month in the top 10 for highest August rain totals.
The NWS precipitation return-frequency viewer indicates a return period of 10-25+ years from the Nulato Hills towards McGrath, highlighting the historically unusual rainfall amounts.
A 30-day percent-of-normal analysis shows that August will go into the books with a big west-east contrast in precipitation:
The westerly flow regime of the past week has developed in response to relatively high pressure over the Aleutians and unusually low pressure in the Arctic, and the source origin of the moist air has been over the (unusually warm) northwestern Pacific. Here's a forecast map from last Sunday evening showing the mid-atmosphere flow pattern for Monday-Friday of this week:
Tuesday evening saw strong west-southwest winds in the Fairbanks area as a strong front moved through:
🛰️ Satellite imagery today showed an impressive front tracking across Alaska, bringing rain and gusty winds. Here in the Fairbanks area, we saw wind gusts of 30–40 mph this evening, which resulted in several thousand power outages. Rain/high elevation snow will continue Wed.#akwx pic.twitter.com/7tbXUpd3xL
— NWS Fairbanks (@NWSFairbanks) August 26, 2026
There's a lot more rain on the way, and likely extending farther east in the coming days. The NWS emphasizes the northwestern interior with particularly unusual conditions in the next 10 days, but the overall wet signal is widespread.
The CPC confirms the broad wet signal through the first week of September. Not great for fall foliage viewing.



















































