The forecast for the May through July average is similar, although the probability of warmth is not quite as high in the interior. There is a surprising area of expected cooler than normal conditions in the Chukchi Sea; this is probably related to the CFSv2 sea ice forecast, which is not known to be particularly reliable.
Interestingly the 3-month forecast for sea-level pressure shows a low pressure anomaly across interior Alaska, and the precipitation forecast hints at above-normal rainfall in the southeastern interior.
The official CPC forecast will come out tomorrow:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/
Also, I added the March verification at the end of my post from 2 months ago:
http://ak-wx.blogspot.com.es/2016/02/seasonal-forecast.html
Update: here's the CPC forecast; the most interesting aspect may be the expectation for above-normal precipitation across northern Alaska in May-July. It's also interesting that the CPC doesn't buy the CFSv2 forecast for an increased chance of wet conditions in southeast Alaska.
I wonder how this forecast relates to the potential for wildfires? It's an annual consideration. Here's a good source of contemporary info:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.weather.gov/arh/fire
Gary
It appears to be bad news for the short term, and a hint of good news for later in the season. Perhaps like last year the fire season will start off active and fade in July and August.
DeleteHere's the monthly fire potential outlook:
http://fire.ak.blm.gov/content/weather/outlooks/monthly.pdf
Rain in July in the interior would be good. Whether they like it or not, they could use it.
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