Thursday, October 23, 2025

Halong vs Merbok

Now that ERA5 data is in from last week, we can compare ex-Typhoon Halong with other historical storms on a level playing field, i.e. with the same model reanalysis.  The most obvious comparison to begin is with ex-Typhoon Merbok from September 2022.  First, here are the ERA5 tracks and minimum MSLP of the two storms, at 3-hour intervals:

Merbok tracked much farther west but was much bigger, with more total energy, and it moved much more slowly as it reached the northern Bering Sea, prolonging the period of high wind and flooding for western Alaska.  Here's a comparison of ERA5 wind gusts at a grid point near Hooper Bay, on the far western end of the Y-K Delta, where the peak wind was almost the same in both storms (according to the model).  Notice how quickly the winds dropped off in Halong, versus the prolonged period of high winds during Merbok.



A map comparison of peak wind gust shows that Halong was worse in terms of wind across the Y-K Delta and up to Norton Sound and the western interior; but Merbok was worse for most of the southern Seward Peninsula, including of course Nome.


The small size but ferocious wind of Halong made its impacts much more akin to those of a landfalling hurricane (or typhoon), although both storms were thoroughly extratropical by the time they impacted western mainland Alaska.

Halong was so intense that ERA5 indicates all-time record high wind gusts along a fairly lengthy swath extending northeastward from Nunivak Island.


Here are storm tracks and ERA5 peak wind gusts for a couple of other historic autumn storms in the Bering Sea (but in these cases having no relation to pre-existing typhoons, as far as I know).  First, the 2011 Bering Sea "Superstorm", a really massive storm:


And the infamous storm of 1974, which was catastrophic for Nome:


It is very interesting that all four of these storms occurred during La Niña conditions, and not only that, during second-year or third-year La Niña events (i.e. the second or third consecutive La Niña winter after an El Niño).  More on this "coincidence" another time.

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