The drumbeat of cold goes on for Alaska, and with every passing day the anomaly becomes more remarkable, especially in comparison to the climate of recent decades. The persistence of the recent anomaly in UAF's statewide temperature index is something to behold:
The first half of March in Fairbanks was the third coldest on record, and the coldest since 1971. Only 1°F separate it from the coldest March 1-15, back in 1971. This comes on top of the 8th coldest December-February period on record - also the coldest since 1970-71.
What would it take for March to be the coldest on record? That would require the average temperature to be below +2°F for the rest of the month - and that did happen in 2007, but it would itself be a rare anomaly.
Here's an interesting perspective on this winter's combination of deep cold and abundant snow in December-February in Fairbanks. For each winter, I've combined the 1930-present percentiles of the Dec-Feb average temperature and total snowfall; this winter was the 8th coldest (93rd percentile for cold) and 4th snowiest (97th percentile). That makes a combined percentile of 95%, the second highest on record. The record was in 1965-66, the 4th coldest and 2nd snowiest Dec-Feb period.
The absence of percentiles above 80% after 1971-72 is very striking; this is all because of the lack of cold in the past 5 decades.
From this perspective, winter 2025-26 really has been an "old-fashioned" winter in Fairbanks.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is the first winter where December, January, February, and March have all had a temperature lower than -48 in Fairbanks.
ReplyDelete-1906-07 appears close with -46 in December and a missing value in February (and a -50 in November!)
-1932-33 was -47, -60, -49, but then only -35 in March.
-1946-47 was -57, -59, and -58 but then only -30 in March.
-1955-57 was -47 or lower across the four months with a low of -53.
I should say of -48 or lower each month, not lower than.
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