The average temp the first half of April in Fairbanks was 30.1F, which is 3.0F above normal. Left is the updated plot of standardized daily mean temp departures for 2012, with the current warmth falling right in with yo-yo pattern we had all winter.
The 90% percentile April mean temps for Fairbanks (1905-2011 data) is 36.9F. In order for this month to make the top 10% warmest Aprils, the second half of the month would have to have a mean temp of 43.7F, which is 5.7F above normal for April 16-30th.
That's a tall order, but with the valley snowpack now going fast and the CFS and CPC weeks 1 and 2 guidance showing no end to the warmth, it looks to be within reach. Of course, six of the ten warmest Aprils of record have occurred since 1990.
Hi Rick,
ReplyDeleteI am a daily lurker of this blog. Has the snowpack melted completely in town? I don't live in Fairbanks so it would be nice to know, in general, the seasonal lifespan of the snowpack. Wikipedia states that the snopwpack is sustained till May, which doesn't seem likely at all with the warm weather Fairbanks gets in April. Thanks
New post addresses your questions, and thanks for stopping by. Rick
DeleteAlso I don't understand the monthly sea-saw temperature swings? Does the Arctic Oscillation have anything to do with the current weather trend? Thanks
ReplyDeleteAO has hardly any correlation with surface temps in Alaska. Since December 22, the correlation between the daily AO Index and the daily standardized mean temperature anomaly for Fairbanks is just 0.12. I'll do up a post later today or tomorrow to illustrate this.
DeleteRick