Saturday, December 25, 2021

Big Interior Storm

[Update 6:30pm Saturday]  The latest NWS forecast graphic is ugly, to say the least.  Best wishes to all in the path of this potentially historic ice storm.


[Original post 7am Saturday]

With a major snow and ice storm bearing down on the interior this Christmas Day, it's interesting to note the similarity in the mid-atmosphere flow pattern between tomorrow (forecasted) and the 1970 pre-Christmas onslaught of precipitation in Fairbanks - see below.  Other than January 1937, the week leading up to Christmas 1970 was the wettest winter week on record in Fairbanks, with over 2" of liquid equivalent, and nearly a quarter-inch of rain.  Let's hope the rain stays away this time, but I fear the worst.

Season's greetings to all!





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6 comments:

  1. NL7YDecember 25, 2021 at 9:37 AM

    I missed the winter 1970-71 in Fairbanks but friends and co-workers informed about the tough times. Lots of snow, moose in town forced to walking down streets, that was then followed but real cold in the New Year. When it finally warmed up and the Sun returned celebrations were in order.

    The real problem is maintaining safe travel and electric power. Utilities subject to falling trees and icing quickly become compromised.

    Gary

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  2. NL7YDecember 25, 2021 at 10:52 PM

    I expect a full post apocalyptic analysis from this experience. Are or were the models helpful or correct? If you tell someone they are going to senesce it's 100% inevitable. But when and how is open to variation. Let's see how screwed we are in Fairbanks before we accept the prognosis. Eh?

    Gary

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    Replies
    1. Richard JamesDecember 26, 2021 at 5:16 AM

      "All models are wrong, but some are useful". The meteorology here is pretty clear, but as usual, understanding and communicating the human impacts requires much experience and skill. Local experts like Rick and the NWS folks know best.

      Delete
    2. NL7YDecember 26, 2021 at 9:25 AM

      Yes and both have been very informative and close the actual event. Now it's raining on the new snow. Thankfully we had ample warning to prepare for travel and power. I guess my wavering faith in forecasts and especially the "Tropical Tidbits" website have been affirmed.

      Gary

      Delete
    3. NL7YDecember 26, 2021 at 9:46 AM

      I'll add this NWS website noted previously as a great platform for weather discussion:

      https://forecast.weather.gov/product.phpsite=CRH&product=AFD&issuedby=AFG

      Gary

      Delete
    4. NL7YDecember 26, 2021 at 9:28 PM

      Now 9:30 wind has arrived in the valley with warm +35*F temps. The temp has melted some accumulated snow/ice on the trees and its falling off. The trees are standing back up. So there's some benefit to above freezing after a major rain event on cold surfaces. Moving right along but still 14K+ without power implies further arborists are required to reduce the potential for power outages during nice weather.

      Gary

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