Peak Summer Warmth

A significant warming trend in the next several days is going to push temperatures well above normal for the time of year across much of Alaska, and especially across eastern, interior, and northern Alaska as next weekend approaches.  Here are predicted 850mb temperature anomaly maps for Friday evening:

It looks likely that this will be the warmest episode of the summer - not just relative to normal, but in absolute terms.  This is a low bar to clear, of course; Fairbanks has so far reached only 81°F this summer, and the NWS is currently indicating 82°F for Thursday.  A typical summer in Fairbanks reaches the upper 80s at some point.

It's interesting to note the absence of very warm weather in Fairbanks in mid-late August in recent years.  The chart below shows that temperatures haven't exceeded 80°F after August 10 since 2010 - a spell longer than any other in the period of record.  Mid-late August has tended to feel more autumnal in the past 15 years, but the warm spell later this week will be reminiscent of earlier times.

It is certainly unusual for the highest temperatures of summer to occur this late in the season.  In Fairbanks, the brief but intense mid-August heatwave of 2010 (91°F on the 15th - easily the latest 90°F on record) was one of the latest dates for seeing the highest temperature of the summer.  The record latest was 83°F on August 30, 1974.

It's not too late to be concerned about fire risk in areas that have been drier recently, i.e. the southeastern interior: