Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Rain for Fairbanks? Oh No!

Models are increasingly pointing at a major rain event for the central Interior Sunday PM into Monday. Here is the GFS forecast from 00Z Thu valid 3am Monday: 0C line at 850mb is north of Fairbanks, and the 1000-850mb thickness is 1319 gpm, with more than half inch of precip forecast between Sunday evening and noon Monday. That much rain between November and March has occurred at least once (January 1936), but maybe only once, in the 105 years of weather observations in Fairbanks. This could be bad.

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