Looking back at historical data from the Big Delta site, snowfall amounts stopped being reported with the introduction of the ASOS in 1997, but from 1941-1997 the latest measurable snow on record was May 22, 1995 (1.2 inches reported). Note the year: 1995, which was the year of the great May heatwave, as I noted in several recent posts. Is it a coincidence that late snowfall occurred about 10 days after extreme early heat in both 1995 and 2015? Not at all, I would argue: an amplified weather pattern lends itself to extremes in both directions.
The upper-level feature responsible for the cold and snow was a sharp trough with a small cut-off low embedded within it. Here's the 500 mb height analysis from Environment Canada, valid for 3am AKST yesterday; the intense high at the dateline over the Arctic Ocean is a key blocking feature, and the trough over interior Alaska is evident, with a closed low analyzed just below the "L" label.
Here's a bit more detail on yesterday's 500 mb flow pattern, from a National Weather Service computer model forecast (maps valid for 3am and 9am AKST yesterday). The orange/red blob near Fairbanks is a patch of strong cyclonic vorticity (i.e. counter-clockwise swirl) associated with the small closed low.
Finally, lest there be any doubt regarding the existence of the cyclonic "swirl", here's a simple radar animation from the Fairbanks NEXRAD yesterday morning. The band of snow that affected Delta Junction becomes evident under the "Ft Greely" label.
Richard this Blog just keeps getting better and informative. The analysis of the Delta Jct snow event is excellent. You're working way above your pay grade.
ReplyDeleteGary
Thanks Gary, kind words. It is all endlessly fascinating to me, so is more fun than work.
DeleteI'm curious why Delta got snow but really no one else didn't. You would think that the low would advect in too warm of air.
ReplyDeleteEric, the upper-level cyclonic feature was clearly quite small, so precipitation was confined to a small area. Also, heavy rates are needed to bring snow to the surface when temperatures are marginal like this; so there were only a few places where the precipitation was heavy and sustained enough to cause sufficient cooling. A few locations got lucky.
DeleteConcerning advection of warm air: this was not a synoptic-scale cyclone (1000-mile scale or more) that thrives on temperature contrast, it was more of a "mesoscale" feature embedded within the cold air mass, so there wasn't a lot of warm air involved. That's my perspective, anyway.
Elevation plays a role. We had some sleet/ice crystals here in Fairbanks early in the AM at about 450' MSL. Delta Jct (Ft. Greely) at almost 1300' is closer to potentially cooler air and the source of the event above.
ReplyDeleteGary