Thursday, January 10, 2013

Update on Rain Threat

Here's the Thursday 18Z GFS forecast for 3pm AST Sunday. This is a forecaster's nightmare. The ridge access is barely east of Fairbanks (farther west than yesterday) and heights are higher. If it precipitates out of this it's hard to see how there isn't some rain. Could be a calamity.

1 comment:


    BTW, there's almost no snow cover south of the Alaska Range. My buds are still out riding their Harleys in Wasilla.

    I'm not a prognosticator, but if I were planning to fly I'd expect for some icing associated with this event if it evolves as predicted to the south.

    Surface rain...depends on many things for us in Fairbanks. Flow, temps at altitude, how much water available, Alaska Range orographics.

    I've seen it get nasty west of the Kantishna River this time of year. Rain on snow covered trees, the effect of which lasts for years and can be seen in permanently bent trunks. Surface icing on snow covered terrain that lasts until April's warmth.

    Hope for the best, but plan for the motto.