Objective Comments and Analysis - All Science, No Politics
Contributions by Richard James and Rick Thoman
Thursday, February 20, 2014
8-14 Day Forecast Visualization for Alaska
8-14 Day Visualization
A few weeks ago I decided to download the GIS shapefiles than NCEP makes available on their website for the 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day extended forecasts. I am particularly interested in these because the push the boundary between a weather forecast and a climate forecast. By downloading the shapefiles and then generating temperature anomaly maps from reanalysis data, we can visualize how effective the forecast actually was (note: this is not an actual verification). The YouTube video below is a compilation of 30 consecutive 8-14 Day forecasts beginning with the December 31 to January 6th time period and ending with the the February 11th to February 17th time period (no forecasts are issued on the weekends). The GIS maps (left) are placed next to the reanalysis data (right) for comparison. There are a few days where the GIS data may not have been processed correctly (repeating polygons on consecutive days). Nevertheless, it makes for an interesting visualization. With the exception of a few days in mid-January, they 8-14 Day forecasts were actually pretty good.