Thursday, December 6, 2012

End of Cold, Start of Snow

I usually try to avoid talking about short term weather forecasts here (too much like work),  but occasionally sometimes it seems worthwhile.

Courtesy of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
So, the end of the cold snap is in sight. The numerical models came into line on Tuesday with a pattern change, with the cold air that's been entrenched for six weeks being first overrun and then rooted out by increasing southwest flow aloft. To the left is this morning's ECMWF forecast of 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures valid next Wednesday morning (I've added an * to roughly locate Fairbanks).

This is a completely classic upper air pattern for heavy snow in Fairbanks-land: ridge in the Gulf of Alaska with deep west southwest mid-atmospheric flow into the Interior. Temperatures would be something like 0 to 20F above with this kind of pattern.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Cold start…but Not Unprecedented

I've heard that the current cold snap over Alaska has been labeled by some media outlets as "historic" or "unprecedented". I'm not interested in surfing the net to find such quotes, but here's the fact: across much of central and eastern Interior Alaska, this is the coldest late November to early December since 1948. To the left is a plot of mean daily temperatures at Fairbanks comparing the two years. On the whole, 1948 was considerably colder, and that's the case for other places (e.g. Northway, Delta Junction). So, a claim that this is the coldest "early winter" in 65 years would be true, but it has been colder this early in the season before.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Never too Cold to Snow

Courtesy of the FAA
Clouds and light snow have moved into the Upper Tanana Valley from the east. As of 11am, -49F and snowing lightly at Tok.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Not So Normal Temperatures

Here's an update of daily temperature anomalies for Fairbanks through Sunday. At the top is a plot of the actual daily mean temperatures. The gray shading represents one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 normal, so temperatures outside of the shading are "unusually" warm/cold for the date.
The bottom plot is my usual daily standardized anomaly plot, which is simply the departure from normal divided by the standard deviation of the normal temperature for that date. Sunday, at 2.2 standard deviations below normal was not quite the most anomalous day of the year (May 2 was 2.3 SD below normal), but with an apparent high temperature Monday of 32 below, Monday will likely claim that title at midnight.

40s Below in Fairbanks-land

Monday morning brought the first 40s below temperatures to the colder areas around Fairbanks. However, a moderate pressure gradient produced some wind at higher elevations, keeping temps considerably warmer.

Low temperatures reported so far include:
Woodsmoke PWS: -45F (near North Pole)
UAF Smith Lake: 43 below
Eielson AFB: 42 below
Fort Wainwright: 41 below
Goldstream Creek: 40 below
Fairbanks Airprot: 38 below

The inversion was not especially sharp: with lower hillside low temps including:

UAF West Ridge: 37 below
College Hills PWS: -34F (near top of Baline Hill)
Gilmore Creek CRN: -27F

Meanwhile, at higher elevation, overnight lows include:

Keystone Ridge: -9F
Cleary Summt: -11F
Wickersham Dome: -13F

The downward trend in temps the past week is nicely illustrated by this 7 day plot of 2-meter temperatures from the UAF Smith Lake site:

Courtesy IARC at UAF

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Nippy Sunday

Courtesy of Alaska Climate Research Center
December's off to a cold start, though the inversion is not especially strong this morning.  The 1025am AST sunrise photo from the Alaska Climate Research Center on UAF West Ridge shows only minimal ice fog over the west side of town.









 Low temperatures through 9am Sunday include:


Woodsmoke PWS: 41 below (near North Pole)
UAF Smith Lake: 39 below
Fort Wainwright: 37 below
Eielson AFB: 36 below
Goldstream Creek: 36 below
Fairbanks Airport: 35 below
UAF West Ridge: 33 below
College Hills: 27 below
Keystone Ridge: 23 below
Nenana Hills RWIS: 21 below
Wickersham Dome: 14 below
Cleary Summit: 13 below


Saturday, December 1, 2012

Following the Bouncing Inversion

Here's a plot of the daily high temperatures in November for Fairbanks Airport and Keystone Ridge (about 1150' elevation difference). Notice the dramatic and sustained increase in inversion strength following Thanksgiving.

Fairbanks November Wx Summary

NOAK49 PAFG 011807
PNSAFG
AKZ222-020445-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
727 AM AKST SAT DEC 1 2012

...MONTHLY WEATHER SUMMARY FOR FAIRBANKS ALASKA...

NOVEMBER 2012 IN FAIRBANKS WAS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WITH UNUSUALLY
LOW SNOWFALL.

COLD WEATHER WAS PERSISTENT BUT NOT EXTREME IN NOVEMBER 2012.
IN NOVEMBER 2012 THERE WERE NO RECORD TEMPERATURES ESTABLISHED...AND
ONLY THREE DAYS ALL MONTH HAD AN AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS DIFFERS FROM NOVEMBER 2011 WHEN SIX DAILY RECORD LOWS
WERE TIED OR SET. FIVE DAYS THIS NOVEMBER WERE 20 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL...AND 17 DAYS HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 20 BELOW OR
COLDER WITH ONLY NOVEMBER 1975 HAVING MORE SUCH DAYS.


OVERALL...AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN NOVEMBER WAS 0.4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO AND THE AVERAGE
LOW WAS 17.9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE AVERAGE FOR THE MONTH OF 8.7
DEGREES BELOW ZERO WAS 11.3 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL AND MADE THIS
THE 6TH COLDEST NOVEMBER IN MORE THAN A CENTURY OF WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AT THE AIRPORT
WAS 22 DEGREES ON THE 10TH...WHILE THE LOWEST WAS 31 BELOW ZERO ON
THE 30TH. THE TEMPERATURE DIPPED INTO 40S BELOW IN A FEW OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE
MONTH. IN CONTRAST...TEMPERATURES AT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS DID
NOT DROP COLDER THAN 10 BELOW ANYTIME DURING NOVEMBER.

SNOWFALL WAS QUITE LIGHT IN NOVEMBER...AND ALL THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FELL DURING THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF THE MONTH. THE MOST SNOW IN
ONE DAY AT THE AIRPORT WAS JUST 2.6 INCHES ON THE 10TH...AND THE
MONTHLY TOTAL WAS A MERE 4.2 INCHES. THIS IS ABOUT A THIRD OF
NORMAL. HOWEVER...THREE NOVEMBERS IN THE PAST 12 YEARS HAVE HAD
LOWER SNOWFALL. THUS FAR THIS WINTER ONLY 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW HAS
FALLEN...WHICH IS LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL. SNOW DEPTH HAS BEEN
STEADY AT SIX INCHES SINCE MID-MONTH. THE LONG TERM AVERAGE SNOW
DEPTH AT THE END OF NOVEMBER IS ABOUT 11 INCHES.

SKIES WERE FREQUENTLY CLEAR AND WIND SPEEDS MUCH OF THE MONTH WERE
CHARACTERISTICALLY LOW...RESULTING IN EXTENDED PERIODS WITH VERY
STRONG INVERSIONS AND LOCALLY POOR AIR QUALITY IN THE FAIRBANKS
AND NORTH POLE AREAS. HOWEVER...WINDS GUSTED TO 20 MPH OR MORE
FROM THE 17TH THROUGH THE 19TH...WHICH HELPED CLEAR THE AIR AT
THAT TIME. THE FREQUENT CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT ALLOWED FOR VIEWING
OF SEVERAL NICE AURORA DISPLAYS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO DECEMBER...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL
DURING THIS DARKEST MONTH OF THE YEAR. THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE
FALLS FROM 7 ABOVE ON THE FIRST TO 2 ABOVE ON NEW YEARS EVE. THE
AVERAGE LOW FALLS FROM 11 BELOW ON THE FIRST TO 16 BELOW ON THE
31ST. IN THE PAST 107 YEARS...DECEMBER TEMPERATURES HAVE VARIED BY
120 DEGREES IN FAIRBANKS...FROM A HIGH OF 58 ABOVE IN 1934 TO A
LOW OF 62 BELOW IN 1961. AVERAGE SNOWFALL IS 12 INCHES...BUT HAS
BEEN AS MUCH AS 50.7 INCHES IN 1984 TO AS LITTLE AS A TRACE IN
1969. POSSIBLE DAILY SUNSHINE FALLS TO THE ANNUAL MINIMUM OF 3
HOURS AND 42 MINUTES ON THE SOLSTICE BEFORE STARTING THE LONG
CLIMB BACK TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT SUN OF JUNE.

Friday, November 30, 2012

Where is the Coldest Place in Alaska?

Regular reader Richard commented that Chicken frequently is cited as a place reporting very low minimum temperatures and asks what is the coldest place in Alaska. This is a question I regularly get, so here you go.

The first thing to keep in mind is the lack of good climate data over vast swaths of Interior and northern Alaska. Since the mid 1950s there have been only two Weather Service Offices in Interior Alaska (Fairbanks and McGrath), an area of something like 300,000 square miles. This is reasonably supplemented by several long term FAA stations: Northway, Big Delta/Fort Greely, Tanana, Bettles. Barrow is the ONLY long term climate site still operating on the North Slope, an area of about 85,000 square miles. There are a handful of long term sites (from a variety of observers) that are useful: Galena and Eagle, and some in the immediate Fairbanks. Everything else is hit or miss. Places you might think should have good long term climate data simply do not (e.g. Fort Yukon, Manley Hot Springs).

The lowest official temperature of record in Alaska is -80F, set in January 1971 at Prospect Creek, which was a pipeline construction camp at Mile 135 Dalton Highway (yes, there are many claims of lower temperatures). The lowest monthly average temperature (NCDC 1981-2010 normals) is Umiat, on the banks of the Colville River, about 140 miles southwest of Prudhoe Bay, with a January normal temperature of -21.3F, and a winter (Dec-Feb) normal of -19.3F.

Umiat, which started out as a Navy station during World War 2, is these days a logistics supply base for oil exploration and general access to the central inland North Slope. One family called Umiat home from the mid 1970s til about 2000, but before and after it is similar to Prudhoe Bay, in the it's no one's home but there are people there working in one capacity or another.

Umiat has the lowest winter mean temperature of any "settlement" in Alaska. That I am confident of (I wrote a paper about this back in the mid 1980s). However, based on 25 years of looking at weather satellite imagery of Alaska, I'm confident there are places upriver from Umiat that are colder. In fact, Umiat is often on the northern edge of the cold pool of air that develops on the north side of the Brooks Range. My guess is that some places southwest of Umiat (maybe near the confluence of the Colville and Killil Rivers) probably average 3-5 degrees cooler than Umiat. All these areas though are cold because it is hard to "warm up" rather than the super low temperatures that have historically been measured in the Interior. The lowest reliable temperature at Umiat, and the lowest I know of on the North Slope, is 66 below in February 1987. Lots of places in the Interior have been colder.

Turns out that today is a good day to discuss this topic. To the left is a NOAA-16 Polar Orbiter infrared image from 630am Friday. There is not much wind and hardly any clouds over the Interior, so the cold air pooled in valleys shows up nicely. To start with, there is nothing especially cold about Prospect Creek, or any of the Brooks Range valleys (including current or former climate stations at Chandalar Lake, Wiseman, Wild Lake, Coldfoot, Arctic Village). They all can get very cold in the right circumstances. Prospect Creek holds the record low simply because there happened to be a climate station, which was open for less than ten years, during a deep cold snap.

The Yukon Flats can be very cold. However, it's at low elevation (generally below 500; MSL), and areas north of the Yukon River can be breezy at times, breaking up the surface temperature inversion. The Yukon River Valley above the Flats can also be very cold, though there is practically no human habitation. The only community is near the Alaska-Yukon border at Eagle, which is at 900' MSL but is prone to downriver winds, breaking the inversion. The areas downriver from Eagle are less prone to wind. but are at slightly lower elevations. 

The Upper Tanana Valley also gets very cold: it is about 1000 feet higher elevation than the Yukon Flats, and there are areas that do not get much drainage wind (e.g. Tok area, Northway and the Tetlin flats in general). However, the Upper Tanana Valley is comparatively close to the Gulf of Alaska (so gets clouds from that direction), and is also far enough south (Northway is at, gasp, 63N) that the sun has some impact on daytime temperatures except for very close to the winter solstice.

Which brings me to my candidate for the coldest area in Interior Alaska: the valleys of the Fortymile County. The Fortymile County is basically a high elevated plateau with winding rivers deeply cut into the plateau. The general elevation of the plateau is up around 2000-2500' MSL, with valleys, often very narrow, several hundred feet lower. The area was a focus for gold mining a century ago, but today is very sparsely populated. The Taylor Highway (BLM brochure map on the right), which is not maintained in winter, cuts through the Fortymile County, connecting the town of Eagle, on the Yukon River to the Alaska Highway. Chicken is the only community in the Fortymile County to have a post office.


The community of Chicken, and the current cooperative observer are in the valley of Chicken Creek, a small tributary of the Mosquito Fork Forty Mile River. Chicken does have the lowest mean January (and winter) average temperature in Interior Alaska, with a 1981-2010 normal January temperature of -20.9F (normal Dec-Feb temperature -16.3F).  There is nothing unique about the location of the coop station, Having been there, it looks to me to be completely representative of the area. It gets so cold because it is a high elevation valley well protected from any wind most of the time, maximizing radiational cooling. However, in spite of current NCDC normals, there is in fact less than 20 years of usable data from Chicken. If any currently active climate station can break the Prospect Creek record low, it's Chicken (which has been to 70 below twice in the past decade).

Chicken though is almost certainly not the coldest place in the Fortymile County. The short-lived O'Brien Creek co-op station, about 40 miles north of Chicken just north of the Fortymile River bridge was generally a bit colder (higher elevation, deeper valley) than Chicken. Because it was in a deep valley, it goes several months without actually seeing the sun.  It is in these kind valleys the absolute lowest temperatures are most likely to occur.

The lack of human habitation and the difficulty of getting automated equipment to work and record accurate extremely low temperatures makes documenting the extreme temperatures of this region difficult.




Thursday, November 29, 2012

Record Cold at Tok

One of my favorite places in Alaska was a bit nippy on Thursday...

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
944 PM AKST THU NOV 29 2012

...RECORD COLD AT TOK...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE THURSDAY AT TOK WAS 50 BELOW. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER 29TH OF 46 BELOW SET IN 1955.

THE RECORD LOW FOR NOVEMBER IN TOK IS 59 BELOW SET IN 1963.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE THURSDAY AT TOK WAS 43 BELOW. THIS IS THE
LOWEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF RECORD IN TOK IN THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER...JUST NIPPING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42 BELOW SET IN
1963 ON NOVEMBER 22ND. THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM DAILY
TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 29TH WAS 27 BELOW SET IN 1995.
 
$$ 
RT NOV 12 

A Cold November does not Portend a Cold Winter

To state the conclusion up front: the average November temperature in Fairbanks is of NO predictive value for the mean temperature of the upcoming winter.

November 2012 is going to be one of the coldest November of record (though not in the coldest three). What does this mean for the upcoming winter? Nothing at all.

Overall, the linear correlation between November mean temperature and the subsequent winter (December through February) mean temperature is only 0.12 (1919-2011). Looking just at the coldest Novembers, it is not any better.

Above is a scatter plot of the 20 coldest Novembers (1919-2011) and the mean temperature during the subsequent winter. Ten of those winters had mean temperatures above the 1919-2011 mean and ten were below the long term mean. Eight of the 20 Novembers wound up being colder than the following the winter. The coldest November (1926, with a mean of -11.2F) was followed by an exceptionally warm winter (mean temperature of +3.2).  

So feel free to forecast colder than normal for the upcoming winter. Looks like you have a 50-50 chance of being right. 

Getting Colder

It's getting to be positively winter-like in eastern Interior Alaska, with temperatures falling past 40 below this morning in some of the colder spots. Here's a NOAA-16 Polar Orbiter infrared image from 940am Thursday (White is colder, dark warmer). There are practically no clouds over the Interior except for a patch northeast of Fort Yukon.
Courtesy NWS Alaska Region
Some low temperatures this morning include:

Chicken Co-op: -52F
Tok CWOP: -50F
Dawson, YT: -46F
Eagle Co-op: -44F
Northway: -42F
Coal Creek RAWS: -42F

The low of -30F through 9am at the Fairbanks Airport is the lowest of the season thus far.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Super Duper Inversion

Fairbanks-land is approaching an inversion strength of 40 degrees Wednesday morning. Some 9am AST temperatures include:

Woodsmoke CWOP: -34F  (near North Pole)
Goldstream Creek: -29F
Fort Wainwright: -29F
Fairbanks Airport: -25F
UAF West Ridge: -15F
College Hills CWOP: -10F (near top of Baline Hill)
Skyflight CWOP: -3F (ridge above Goldstream Creek)
Nenana Hills RWIS: 0F (at FNSB boundary on Parks Highway)
Wickersham Dome +7F
Keystone Ridge: +9F

Monday, November 26, 2012

Low Snow All Winter?

Fairbanks is going to wind up with 4.2" of snow for November and just 11.3" thus far this season. This is only the 14th lowest autumn snowfall in the WB/NWS era (1930-2012) and the lowest since just 2006. 

What does this mean for the rest of the winter? To the left is a histogram of total seasonal snowfall for the 20 least snowiest autumns (Sep-Nov) since 1930. As you can see, winding up with more than the long term normal average has occurred just three of twenty times, which turns out to be the same frequency of winters with less than 30" for the whole season. However, 45% of winters have wound up with 55" or more inches of snow, so even with a slow start like we've had this autumn, there is a decent chance, based on the historical record, that Fairbanks will wind up with "near to above normal" snowfall.

Sunday, November 25, 2012

A Strong Inversion Morning

Quite a strong inversion has developed over Fairbanks as the airmass has warmed under the high aloft that is centered over the southern Chukchi Sea.

Analysis by Environment Canada

The temperature plot from the morning sounding shows a temperature increase of 16C (27F) in the lowest two hundred meters (note: I have reason to believe that the surface temperature that was encoded of -26.1C is too warm: I've adjusted the surface temperature to the value of 11Z Fairbanks ASOS observation).
Late Sunday morning temperatures in Fairbanks-land range from 11 above at Wickersham Dome to 26 below at Fort Wainwright. Here on Keystone Ridge, the temperature hit 10 above Saturday evening but has been mostly in the 5 to 8 above range Sunday morning.

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Denali Super Inversion

Courtesy of the FAA
On Friday high temperatures in Denali National Park included 7 below at Wonder Lake Rangers Station, 8 below at the Toklat rest stop and 18 below at an automated observation near the Wilderness Access Center at the east end of the Park, but a whopping +28F  at Eielson Visitors Center. Why was Eielson so warm? At 3650' elevation and on the side of a mountain, it was well above any valley based inversion and into the warm air under the big high aloft that is controlling Interior Alaska weather this weekend. To the left is the view of Saturday morning sunrise on Denali, as seen from Eielson VC, where it was +22F at picture time.

Still Cool

Interior Alaska remains in a cool and dry weather pattern with persistent, though not extreme below normal temperatures. Here's an update through Friday of the standardized daily temperature departures. Although not as monolithic as last winter, below normal as been the rule for more than a month now.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Noon Sunshine

The solar noon view from Beaver Village, looking south across the Yukon River. Nice sundog too.

Happy Thanksgiving Day

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1200 PM AKST WED NOV 21 2012

...THANKSGIVING IN FAIRBANKS...

THANKSGIVING DAY IS A SOLIDLY WINTER HOLIDAY IN FAIRBANKS. SINCE
1904...THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON THANKSGIVING DAY HAS BEEN 7
ABOVE AND THE AVERAGE LOW HAS BEEN 10 BELOW. THE SNOWIEST
THANKSGIVING WAS IN 1996...WHEN 6.1 INCHES OF SNOW FELL...WHILE ON
THANKSGIVING 1970 THERE WAS 36 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. OVER
THE PAST 107 YEARS...THE WARMEST THANKSGIVING WAS IN 1943...WHEN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 46 DEGREES. THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING WAS
IN 1927...WHEN THE HIGH WAS 45 BELOW AND THE LOW WAS 50 BELOW.

THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY 2012 CALLS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ZERO TO 15 BELOW. 

$$
RT NOV 12

Paltry Snow Cover

Here are some snow depths around Alaska the day before Thanksgiving:

Northway: 14 inches
Tok: 14 inches
Chicken: 12 inches
Circle Hot Springs: 12 inches
Eagle: 10 inches
McGrath: 9 inches 
Denali NP Headquarters: 8 inches
UAF West Ridge: 7 inches
Fairbanks Airport: 6 inches
Anchorage: 2 inches
Kotzebue: Trace
Nome: Trace

These amounts are all below normal except for the upper Tanana Valley, which is near or even slightly above normal.

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Why is It Dry and Cold?

Why has it been unusually dry and cold in Interior Alaska thus far this month? The image at the right, from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis, plots the mean sea level pressure for the first 16 days of November. High over the Brooks Range and low over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Hard to get much snow north of the Alaska Range with that pattern.

Just Like Winter



What I did at work today...
 
 
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 PM AKST SUN NOV 18 2012

...COLD SUNDAY IN NORTHEAST INTERIOR ALASKA...

A COLD AIR MASS COVERS ALL OF INTERIOR ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...MANY AREAS HAVE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP
STRONG INVERSIONS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...IN THE UPPER YUKON
VALLEY AND ON THE SOUTHERN YUKON FLATS...WINDS HAVE REMAIN NEARLY
CALM. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO UNUSUALLY LOW
LEVELS FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER.

SOME LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR SUNDAY INCLUDE...

BIRCH CREEK....................46 BELOW
BEAVER CREEK (YUKON FLATS).....45 BELOW
AMERICAN CREEK NEAR EAGLE......44 BELOW
COAL CREEK.....................43 BELOW
CENTRAL........................41 BELOW 
EAGLE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER.....41 BELOW 
EAGLE AIRPORT..................39 BELOW

IN CONTRAST...AT THE FORT YUKON AIRPORT...WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN 
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
SUNDAY HAS BEEN JUST 8 BELOW.

IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA ALMOST ALL AREAS HAVE HAD WIND FOR THE PAST DAY...SO 
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

$$
RT NOV 12

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Inversion Busting Winds

After diminishing for about 12 hours late Thursday night and Friday morning, winds picked back up Friday afternoon, and in spite of clear skies, winds overnight broke through the inversion, producing dramatic temperature swings in valley locations. Here's a high frequncyplot of temperatures from a suite of sensors near Smith Lake, off the west end of UAF West Ridge, showing a temperature rise of more than 10C in just a few minutes:

Courtesy UAF/IARC
Below is a plot of the hourly temperatures from Keystone Ridge, Goldstream Creek and Fairbanks Airport. Keystone Ridge, where winds have been northeast 15 to 30 mph since late Friday afternoon,  shows steady gradual cooling.The Goldstream Creek site shows, like Smith Lake, temperatures rising dramatically Friday evening, with gradual cooling since then. This well mixed boundary layer reflects the turbulent mixing produced by the winds. The situation at the Airport is more complex. The temperature did not pop-up until just before midnight, and a pool of cold air sloshed back over the airport between 5 and 7am. This cold pool is now being eroded away.


Friday, November 16, 2012

A Bright and Sunny Morn

Courtesy of Alaska Climate Research Center

It's a lovely day in Fairbanks-land, with blazing sunshine and temperatures to warm the hearts of any Alaskan. Lows this morning include:

Woodsmoke PWS: -30F (near North Pole)
Goldstream Creek: -29F
Eielson AFB: -28F
Two Rivers PWS: -27F
Fairbanks Airport: -26F
UAF West Ridge: -20F
College Hills PWS: -13F (near top of Balaine Hill)
Gilmore Creek CRN: -5F
Wickersham Dome: -2F
Keystone Ridge: -1F
Clearly Summit: +1F

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Barrow Still Hot

Here's an update of the analysis of the ongoing ultra-warm autumn at Barrow, now that there is some sea ice in the area. Through the first 13 days of November the average temperature at Barrow is 9 degrees above normal (compare to Fairbanks, which is more than 8 degrees below normal for the same period). The plot shows the daily temperature departure from normal since September 1. Since September 11th, only two days have had an average temperature even slightly below normal. It is entirely possible that this will be the warmest autumn (September-November) of record in Barrow (current record is 25.8F set in 1998). 

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Strong Inversion Monday Morning

Here's a plot of the low level temperatures from the Monday morning sounding at Fairbanks. This isn't, overall, an especially strong inversion by Interior Alaska standards, but the steep temperature increase of 23 degrees in just 76 meters is quite impressive. Clouds moved in Monday morning and weakened the inversion in by the afternoon.

Monday, November 12, 2012

40 below on the Flats

Fort Yukon 940am Monday, courtesy of the FAA
The Chalkyitsik RAWS (which is half way between fort Yukon and Chalkyitsik) hit 40 below Monday morning. I believe that this is the first 40 below of the season. The Beaver Creek RAWS has been down to 36 below the Fort Yukon AWOS to 33 below. 

Blogging to Resume

I had to leave Alaska on a family emergency last and had limited internet access. I'll get to questions and have new posts soon. Rick

Saturday, November 3, 2012

October Summary for Fairbanks

Here's the summary for October

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1104 AM AKDT FRI NOV 2 2012

...OCTOBER 2012 WEATHER SUMMARY FOR FAIRBANKS ALASKA...

OCTOBER WEATHER IN FAIRBANKS STARTED OUT WARM AND WET BUT
PROGRESSED INTO A FAIRLY COOL AND DRY PATTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE MONTH. CHINOOK WINDS CREATED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR ON THE 4TH UNTIL A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLIES
BROKE DOWN THE CHINOOK AND PUSHED A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF LATE SEASON
RAIN INTO TOWN ON THE 7TH AND 8TH. ON THE 7TH...0.21 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION CLAIMED A NEW DAILY RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR
FAIRBANKS AND ON THE 8TH...0.55 INCHES WAS JUST SHY OF THE DAILY
RECORD OF 0.59 INCHES SET IN 1916. THE HIGHEST DAILY PRECIPITATION
OF THE MONTH WAS THE 0.55 INCHES WHICH FELL ON THE 8TH IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THIS WAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN OCTOBER IN FAIRBANKS SINCE
1986.

AFTER THREE MONTHS OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...OCTOBER MADE A
COMEBACK WITH A TOTAL OF 1.38 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS
0.55 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. DESPITE THE ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THE SNOWFALL AT FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT THE TOTAL OCTOBER SNOWFALL OF 7.1 INCHES WAS 3.7 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL. UNLIKE MOST YEARS IN FAIRBANKS...THE FIRST MEASURABLE
SNOW ON THE 14TH REMAINED ON THE GROUND TO ADD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE WINTER SNOW PACK (1 INCH OR GREATER) ON OCTOBER
15TH...RATHER THAN MELTING. IT IS COMMON FOR THE FIRST MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL TO MELT...AND THE SNOW PACK TO DEVELOP WITH LATER SNOWS.

THE FIRST TRACE OF SNOWFALL OCCURRED ON SEPTEMBER 30TH THIS
YEAR...A WEEK LATER THAN THE AVERAGE OF SEPTEMBER 21ST. THIS YEARS
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.1 INCH) WAS
NEARLY TWO WEEKS LATER THAN NORMAL ON OCTOBER 14TH AS COMPARED TO
THE AVERAGE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DATE WHICH IS OCTOBER 1ST.
THE GREATEST SNOWFALL OF THE MONTH WAS 2.9 INCHES WHICH FELL ON
THE 29TH.

DURING THE INDIAN SUMMER EARLY IN THE MONTH...ON OCTOBER 4TH...
FAIRBANKS AIRPORT REACHED 61 DEGREES...JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD
HIGH FOR THE DAY OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1923. ON THE 4TH...COLLEGE
OBSERVATORY COOPERATIVE WEATHER STATION REPORTED A NEW RECORD HIGH
OF 59 DEGREES WHICH EXCEEDED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 58 DEGREES SET
IN 2001. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF THE MONTH AT THE AIRPORT WAS 11
BELOW ON THE 24TH...FAR FROM THE RECORD DAILY LOW OF 22 BELOW SET
IN 1935.

OVERALL...THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT
WAS 30.3 DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 14.7 DEGREES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.5 DEGREES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
WAS 1.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND THE COOLEST OCTOBER SINCE 2008.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER...THE WANING DAYLIGHT IS ARGUABLY THE
MOST NOTICEABLE FEATURE OF NOVEMBER. FAIRBANKS LOSES NEARLY 3
HOURS OF DAYLIGHT IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER FROM 7 HOURS AND 46
MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT ON THE 1ST WITH A NOON SUN ANGLE OF 10
DEGREES...TO 4 HOURS AND 44 MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT ON THE 30TH WITH A
NOON SUN ANGLE OF 3 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW ON THE 1ST
IS 18 ABOVE AND 3 ABOVE RESPECTIVELY...AND ON THE 30TH IS 7 ABOVE
AND 11 BELOW RESPECTIVELY. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN NOVEMBER
IS 54 DEGREES SET IN 1936 AND THE RECORD LOW IS 54 BELOW SET IN
1909.

Friday, November 2, 2012

Snow Drought

Courtesy of the FAA
Here in Fairbanks snowfall is only about 60% of normal for the season thus far, but it could be worse. Here is a Friday afternoon webcam photo from Kaltag, in the western Interior. Kaltag, on the east side of the Nulato Hills, is one of the snowiest low elevation places in Interior Alaska, with an mean annual snowfall of something around 120 inches. However, as you can see, thanks to the big aloft aloft that has been place for more than two weeks now, there is no snow on the ground at all.

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Record Warm October in Barrow

We knew this was coming, but it’s now in the books: Barrow recorded the warmest October in more than nine decades of unbroken climate observations. The first plot shows the daily high and low temperatures this past month (the 1981-2010 normals are shaded for comparison). The high temperature was above normal every single day: the low temperature dipped below normal on just two days.
The mean temperature for the month was 27.5ºF, which is 2.0 degrees higher than the previous warmest October (set in 2006) and 10.3 degrees warmer than the 1981-2010 normal.

How does this compare to the historical data? Although this past October set a new record, it is obviously in keeping with a now decade long pattern of very warm Octobers, as illustrated in the plot below. The black line is simply the average temperature for the five Octobers up to and including any given year. It's noisy, but obviously the later 1930s and 1940s were mild and the 1970s and 80s were cool. After the mid-1990s there was a steep rise that has flattened out now at a level far higher than any five year period in the 1930s or 40s. The orange line really tells the tale:  this is the five year running standard deviation of mean October temperatures. Even during the warm 1930s and 40s there was roughly the same year-to-year variability as in the cold 1980s and 90s. However, that variability has collapsed in the past decade: October temperatures are not varying by very much at all these days.


It’s not just that some Octobers have been warm recently, it’s every October for the past decade has far above normal, and six of the ten warmest Octobers have occurred since 2002. The next plot shows the deviation in the mean temperature each October from the 1920-2001 mean. There is nothing special about the 1920-2001 period except that it ends right before the current streak of warm Octobers starts. Choosing a different long term average simply moves the zero line up or down. The patterns remains the same: the past decade of warm Octobers at Barrow is unprecedented: there is nothing like this streak in the past nine decades.


There’s no mystery why Barrow has become so warm in October: lack of near-shore sea ice. Prior to the late 1990s, the Arctic sea ice was typically either at Barrow or not far to the north and northwest by mid-October; in some years the ice was largely in place early in the month (an in rare occasions ice was in place in September). This allowed cold air to move from the high Arctic onto Alaska’s North Slope with little warming. Air over sea ice, which quickly becomes snow covered, can become (or remain) much colder than over the open ocean. The freezing point of sea water is 29F (lower than fresh water due to dissolved salts in sea water), so the temperature of air that had cooled to much lower temperatures over ice but then moves over water will fairly quickly approach that of the water. This is an important point: it’s not just whether the sea ice is at Barrow or not. The distance to the ice edge matters a lot. A fetch of 400 miles over open water (which is about what it was at the beginning of the October) will have a much bigger impact on air temperature than an ice edge 40 miles away, which will have a bigger impact than the ice edge four miles away. This of course is the same everywhere over open oceans: air temperature is close to the ocean surface temperature.

Below is the sea ice analysis for Halloween from the NWS Anchorage Sea Ice Desk. There is still 50 to 250 miles of open water between Barrow and the sea ice, depending on direction.


Once the ice closes in, the strong forcing to much warmer than normal temperatures caused by open ocean will be gone, and overwinter and spring temperatures are Barrow will depend more on prevailing atmospheric patterns.

Variable Winds Modulating Temperatures

1200 UTC Surface Analysis courtesy of Environment Canada
An interesting wind situation has prevailed in the past day over the Fairbanks area, with widespread northeast winds right down to the valley floor. The average wind at the Fairbanks Airport on Wednesday was 14.1 mph. This is most unusual this time of year for a northeast wind event: persistent winds this strong in winter typically occur with southwest flow following a frontal passage. The surface analysis for 4am ADT Thursday from Environment Canada shows the 1039bm high over the Brooks Range, with a decent, though not extreme pressure gradient over Interior Alaska.  The winds Thursday morning have slacked in some valley areas, allowing temperatures to fall smartly: down to 11 below at Woodsmoke near North Pole and 4 below at Fort Wainwright and Fairbanks International. However, one of the usual cold spots, Goldstream Creek, had puffs of wind all night. The temperature dipped to 2 below about 3am, then was back up to 7 above by 730am.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Barrow will have Warmest October of Record

Barrow looking north, Sunday 1030am. Courtesy of UAF Sea Ice Group
The mean temperature for the first 27 days of October at Barrow has been 28.0F. The warmest October was 2006 with an average temperature of 25.5F. This means Barrow would have to have an average temperature of 8.6F the last four days of the month NOT to set a new record for the entire month. Since winds remain west to northwest, there is no chance at all of that happening and it is a certainty that Barrow will have the warmest October of record. 

Saturday, October 27, 2012

October Temperature Departures

Dawn Saturday at Lake Minchumina, courtesy of the FAA
For the first 26 days of October, here are the average temperature departures from normal (1981-2010 normals) for some NWS locations:

Juneau: -2.9F
Anchorage: -1.2F
Fairbanks: -2.1F
McGrath: +1.1F
Bethel: +1.2F
Nome: +2.1F
Kotzebue: +3.7F
Barrow: +9.1F

Find the outlier.

Freeze-Up Nearly Complete

Courtesy of Pro Music
Here's a view from Friday afternoon from the Pro Music webcam looking south across the Chena River in downtown Fairbanks. As you can see, freeze-up is nearly complete.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Wimpy No More

If Tuesday morning's inversion was lackluster by Interior Alaska standards, Wednesday morning's sounding looks a lot more like what we expect in winter. Temperatures above the valley floor have been rising since early Tuesday evening, and overnight the winds picked up. Nothing extreme, but enough to "mix it up". With clear skies under the big high aloft, the valley floor continues to cool, and the resulting inversion becomes self-reinforcing, isolating the valley surface from winds generated by the moderate pressure gradient. The result of all this are temperatures in the teens below in the usual cool areas on the valley floor (-15F at Goldstream Creek at 8am) to the teens above well up in the hills (+16F at Keystone Ridge at 8am). Fairbanks Airport has been down to 9 below thus far, the lowest of the season to date.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

A Little Inversion

The surface based temperature inversion was fairly underwhelming at 3am Tuesday, as shown in the plot on the left: only about 9ºC in 1000 meters. After balloon launch time surface temperatures cooled some more before fairly widespread fog developed. Fairbanks Airport got to 6 below, Woodsmoke PWS 14 below and Goldstream Creek 16 below. Here on Keystone Ridge as of 9 am it's been down to 1 above; as I write this I'm looking at lovely dawn colors in the eastern sky, with the tops of the fog in the valley well below.

Monday, October 22, 2012

First Sub-Zero in Fairbanks

Arctic Village Monday afternoon. Courtesy of the FAA


Fairbanks Airport reported a low of 5 below Monday morning, the first sub-zero temperature of the season, and about a week earlier than average. For comparison, the record low for Oct 22nd is 16 below set in 1956.

Chicken reported 21 below and Arctic Village 18 below for lows Monday morning. Just like winter. Only warmer…

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Sub-Zero Around Fairbanks

Courtesy of UAF's Alaska Climate Research Center
Friday evening a few of the normally cold spots nicked just below zero, but this sunny Sunday morning subzero temperatures are more widespread. Through 10am lows include:

Woodsmoke PWS -7F  (near North Pole)
Chena Hot Springs: -6F
Goldstream Creek: -5F
Eielson AFB: -5F
Fort Wainwright: +2F
Fairbanks Airport: +3
UAF West Ridge: +4F

Keystone Ridge: +10F

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Putting Down the Winter Snowpack

The Fairbanks area received three to five inches of snow over the course of several days early this week, with the result that everywhere in the area now has a solid snow cover. In spite of the mild weather early in the month, this is right on schedule: the long term median date for establishment of the permanent winter snow cover is October 18th. It is possible, but high unlikely, that the current snow cover could be reduced to a trace. Since 1929, twice has there been two inches of snow on the ground (the current snow depth at the Airport) on October 20th, only to have it melt back to a trace later in the month. Snow cover is defined here to be a snow depth on one inch or more at the standard time of day for snow depth reporting (traces do not count) and each day thereafter also has one inch or more on the ground through March 31st.

A couple of things stand out on the chart. First, in the past twenty years there has been much less variability in when the winter snow pack was established compared to previous decades (only one year more than 10 days from the median). Also note that it's a lot more common to have very late establishment of snow pack than very early. Only two autumns has the snow pack been established more than 15 days early (1956 and 1992), but seven times has the snow cover been more than 15 days late (though none since 1982). This includes the remarkable autumn of 1934, when the thin snow cover of November was obliterated by the super Chinook of December 3-8, 1934 and then there was no measurable precipitation until after the day after Christmas, resulting in the only "brown Christmas" in Fairbanks weather history.

Friday, October 19, 2012

Fairbanks Temperature Update

After a mild start, October temperatures having been running below normal mid-month. Here's the 2012 plot of daily standardized temperature anomalies for Fairbanks through Thursday, October 18th.

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Freeze-Up Underway

Here's a webcam photo taken Saturday morning from Pro Music looking south across the Chena River in downtown Fairbanks. As you can see, there is some ice showing up now. With sub-freezing weather now in place, the rivers will freeze quickly over the next few days.

Friday, October 12, 2012

More on October and Winter Temperatures in Fairbanks

Continuing on the thread that Richard of Georgia asked of "Do October temperatures have predictive value value for the upcoming winter?"

A few days I presented a scatter plot of mean October temperatures vs. mean December through February temperatures, and the results were not encouraging.

Here I abstract away from the actual mean temperatures and give you the rank correlations for the 82 winters since 1930-31 (1 being the coldest and 82 being the warmest).  So, each point represents a pairing of the rank in the 82 winters of October mean temperature and the corresponding rank of the following mid-winter. As you can see, the correlation is pretty weak. However, just looking at the ten coldest Octobers (far left on the x-axis), what I see is that the following mid-winter has not been among warmest, while with the warmest Octobers (far right on the x-axis), there are no really cold mid-winters. So, what I get out of this analysis is that if there is an unusually cold or warm (top ten) October, then past performance suggests that the following mid-winter will not be among the extremes of the opposite sign, i.e. a very cold October is most unlikely to be followed by very warm mid-winter, (but could easily be above normal) and vice versa. Outside of the extremes, I find no useful signal at all.

I did look at the 1946-1976 negative PDO phase and the 1976-2007 positive PDO phase. During the negative PDO, the ranked correlation was slightly higher (0.19) than the full 82 years, while during the positive PDO phase the ranked correlation was an abysmal 0.08.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

First Sub-Zero Temperatures of the Season

It helps to have snow on the ground to get temperatures down below zero, but you don't need it. A number of places got that cold this morning, and most of those places have no snow cover at all. These are the first subzero temperatures of the season in Alaska. Here's an FAA webcam photo from the Eagle Airport Thursday afternoon, where the low temperature was 1 below.
Courtesy of the FAA


Other lows Thursday morning included:

Chicken: -5F (snow early last week all melted)
Chalkyitsik RAWS: -4F (east of Fort Yukon)
Tok CWOP: 0F
Kandik River Coop: +5F

Record Warm Start to October at Barrow

For the first time in nearly a century of instrumented weather observations at Barrow, the average temperature for the first ten days of October was above freezing. The average temperature of 32.1F is 0.6 degrees warmer than the previous record of 31.5F in 1977. During the first ten days of the month Barrow set two record highs (41F on the 5th and 38F on the 6th) and was within a degree of the record high on the 7th with a high  of 37F. The 1981-2010 normal temperature for this period is 23.5F.

Okay, whoop-dee-do. Half a degree. Breaking a record set 35 years ago. However, when taken in context, the significance becomes unequivocal. Here is a plot of the mean temperature for the first ten days of October since 1920 (blue) and the 10-year running mean (black). Notice that there was a bunch of warm periods in the 1930s and 40s, but since 2002 there have been ZERO cold starts to October. It wasn't like this in the 30s. The lack of near shore sea ice does not guarantee there will be record warm temperatures. But it does mean that even over as short of a period as ten days, there are many more ways to be warm (compared to long term societal and environmental expectations) than otherwise.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

October and the Upcoming Winter

Richard from Georgia asked about the correlation of temperatures in October to the following winter. As a first crack at answering this, to the left is a plot of the October mean temperature vs. the mean temperature the following mid-winter, December through February. I've divided up the scatter plot in four quadrants based on the mean temperatures for the 81 years of data used here. As you can see, there is not much correlation (R=0.13). Some cold Octobers are followed by very mild winters, and vice versa. For example, Oct 2000 had an average temperature of 22.3F, about 3 degrees below the long term average, but was followed by the warmest mid-winter in the past 82 years. In contrast, last October was very mild (mean temperature 28.9F), but was followed by a  mid-winter with an average temperature of -11.0F, the coldest in years. 

However, this is not the whole story. We know that the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1976-2007) correlated with much warmer winters in Interior Alaska than previous decades, but October (and the autumn in general) did not warm very much at all during the same time period.  I'll take at look at this complication in another post.

No Snow in Golden Heart City

Fairbanks is still waiting for the first measurable snow of the autumn, and it's getting quite late in the season to still be waiting for that important event. At the right is a histogram of dates of first measurable (0.1" or more) of the autumn since 1930. Only in 13 of the past 82 years has the first measurable snow been October 10th or later. Cooler weather looks to be in place now, but after Monday's soaker there is no precipitation at all in the forecast for the next several days. In recent years the latest dates for first measurable snow are last year, October 13th, and 1979, October19th.

Monday, October 8, 2012

Rain and Snow

Central, Alaska. Courtesy of the FAA
Updated:
Fairbanks was soaked Sunday night and Monday with about three quarters of an inch of rain. Although I can't be sure because of mixed rain rain and snow events, it looks like the 0.76 inches of rain from late Sunday to Monday afternoon is the third greatest rain event of record in Fairbanks for the month of October. The snow level remained pretty high through the event. Here at Keystone Ridge there was some wet snow at times but it only briefly accumulated before melting. Above 2000 feet MSL there was more: coming home from work Monday afternoon I observed about 3 inches of wet snow at 2400 feet on Murphy Dome Road. The Eagle Summit SNOTEL, at 3600 feet elevation, evidently had about five inches of snow.

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Record Warmth at Barrow

Courtesy of UAF Sea Ice Group
The temperature at Barrow on Friday reached 41F at Barrow, breaking the previous record of 39F set in 1925, and just two degrees from the record high for the month of October. At the left is the Sea Ice cam photo from 930am Saturday. Notice anything odd in this picture? If you said "no snow on the ground", you'd be right. Barrow gone this late in the autumn without any snow on the ground just five times in the past 95 years. Four of those years have been since 1998.

Friday, October 5, 2012

Brooks Range Autumn

Here's a webcam shot from Friday morning at Ivotuk, a research site southwest in the Brooks Range of Umiat at about 2000 feet elevation. Temperatures overnight remained a bit above freezing, but cooler air will return over the weekend and this snow cover is likely to be there until late May or early June.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Warm October Day

Temperatures rose into the 50s and lower 60s in southern Interior Alaska on Thursday. The high at Fairbanks Airport of 61F was just a degree shy of the October 4th record of 62F set in 1923. Other highs included 61F at Fort Greely, 59F at Fort Wainwright and Nenana, 58F at UAF West Ridge and 54F at Keystone Ridge. The unseasonably warm weather is the result of deep southerly flow aloft. This geostationary image from 630pm ADT Thursday tells the story:

The deep low in the central Bering Sea is the extra-tropical rebirth of ex-Typhoon Jelawat. The occlusion is stretched northeast to southwest across mainland Alaska, and south of Kodiak you can see the clouds arcing around a big high aloft centered over the southeast Gulf of Alaska. While temperatures will cool off some, for the most part it looks to remain warmer than normal through the weekend.

Monday, October 1, 2012

Heavy Snow in the FortyMile County

An innocuous looking cloud mass associated with weak closed low aloft brought heavy snow to a small area in far eastern Interior Sunday into early Monday. The NOAA-19 polar orbiter image from  543am ADT Monday shows a hint of the closed low center just southeast of Chicken.


The cooperative observer at Chicken reported 8.0 inches of snow (0.60 inches liquid) Monday morning. Chicken is at about 1800' MSL, and no doubt higher elevations along the Taylor Highway received more. Eagle reported exactly the same amount of liquid as Chicken, but because Eagle is almost 1000' lower elevation, the precipitation fell as rain or mixed rain and snow, with no accumulation in Eagle proper. There was just a dusting at Tok and Northway.

September Summary For Fairbanks


What I did last night...
 
 
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
611 AM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

...MONTHLY WEATHER SUMMARY FOR FAIRBANKS ALASKA...

SEPTEMBER WEATHER IN FAIRBANKS WAS LARGELY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM AND COOL WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL. THE STORM AT MID MONTH THAT BROUGHT DAMAGING WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WAS NOT NEARLY SO STRONG IN
THE FAIRBANKS AREA.

OVERALL...THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT WAS
55 DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE LOW 36 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 
FOR SEPTEMBER OF 45.5 DEGREES MADE THIS THE COOLEST SEPTEMBER
SINCE 2004...BUT WAS STILL 0.6 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE LAST MONTH WAS 67 DEGREES ON THE 22ND AND THE
LOW OF 26 DEGREES OCCURRED ON THE 13TH AND 30TH. AT THE AIRPORT 
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE AUTUMN OCCURRED ON THE 8TH...WHICH IS
ALMOST EXACTLY THE LONG TERM AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST FREEZING
TEMPERATURE.

FOR THE THIRD MONTH IN A ROW...PRECIPITATION WAS WELL BELOW
NORMAL. JUST 0.55 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT THE AIRPORT...WHICH IS
ONLY HALF OF NORMAL. ABOUT HALF OF THAT SCANT TOTAL FELL ON THE
20TH AND 21ST. FOR JULY THROUGH SEPTEMBER THE TOTAL RAINFALL WAS
72 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER ALLOWED THE DRY
CREEK FIRE...ON THE FLATS WEST OF EIELSON AFB...TO CONTINUE TO
BURN...ESPECIALLY WHEN FANNED BY GUSTY WINDS. AN UNUSUAL LATE
SEASON THUNDERSTORM RUMBLED ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF FAIRBANKS
AND IN THE NORTH POLE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON OF THE 9TH...WHEN
SOME SPOTS HAD THE GROUND WHITENED IN HAIL. 

THE ONLY SNOW OF THE MONTH IN TOWN FELL ON MORNING OF THE 30TH.
JUST A TRACE FELL AT THE AIRPORT BUT SOME NEIGHBORHOODS RECEIVED
A SHORT LIVED DUSTING. EVEN IN THE HILLS THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION. 

LOOKING AHEAD TO OCTOBER,,,THE PERMANENT WINTER SNOW PACK IS
ALMOST ALWAYS ESTABLISHED SOMETIME IN OCTOBER. AS A RESULT THE
AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE FALLS 25 DEGREES DURING THE MONTH...FROM
AN AVERAGE OF 36 DEGREES ON THE FIRST TO 11 ABOVE ON HALLOWEEN.
OVER THE PAST 107 YEARS...OCTOBER TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED FROM 72
DEGREES IN 2003 TO 28 BELOW IN 1935. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AVERAGES
0.83 INCHES. MUCH OF THIS TYPICALLY FALLS AS SNOW...AND SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS RARE AFTER MID-MONTH. NORMAL SNOWFALL IS ABOUT 11
INCHES. THE LAST TIME FAIRBANKS DID NOT HAVE A WHITE HALLOWEEN WAS
IN 1962. RAPIDLY DECREASING POSSIBLE SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTES TO THE
TRANSITION TO WINTER...FALLING FROM 11 HOURS AND 14 MINUTES ON THE
1ST TO 7 HOURS AND 53 MINUTES ON THE 31ST.

THE OUTLOOK FOR FAIRBANKS FOR OCTOBER FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CALLS FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.